Matchup analysis
Our model projects UConn 25, Wyoming 22 at War Memorial Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: UConn wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.4 points and 47.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
UConn is 4-3 against the 132nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.6 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+11.7 per game). Wyoming is 5-3 against the 130th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.5 and allowing 20 points per game (-0.5 per game).
UConn's middle-of-the-pack offense (73rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) meets Wyoming's middle-of-the-pack defense (70th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UConn puts up. UConn's below-average defense (96th) should limit Wyoming's struggling offense (131st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.1 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UConn by 26 and Wyoming by 19 about 80% of the time.
Wyoming gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. UConn is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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UConn vs Wyoming: stat comparison
| Stat | UConn | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.6#30 | 19.5#126 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.9#67 | 20.0#34 |
| Yards per play | 6.97#12 | 5.86#85 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.59#69 | 5.48#63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 220.9#17 | 195.5#37 |
| Net passing yards per game | 232.3#62 | 137.8#132 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 116.1#20 | 203.6#125 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 279.4#135 | 168.1#17 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#87 | 1.25#119 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#96 | 0.38#132 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#84 | 2.38#47 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.14#133 | 2.00#85 |
| Stat | UConn | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15#39 | +0.04#97 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#63 | +0.07#86 |
| Success rate | 43.3%#64 | 42.2%#78 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.1%#72 | 44.7%#117 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.6%#15 | 13.7%#46 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.6%#16 | 11.4%#64 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#58 | 13.0%#96 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0%#39 | 14.7%#106 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.31#50 | 3.44#114 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.57#45 | 3.37#28 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#47 | own 31#43 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#45 | own 27#32 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0#75 | 56.9#138 |
| Stat | UConn | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.22#6 | +0.15#29 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08#72 | -0.11#129 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#29 | +0.09#97 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09#87 | +0.02#59 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.8%#53 | 49.4%#16 |
| Passing success rate | 43.1%#56 | 38.6%#104 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.7%#42 | 14.7%#29 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.8%#45 | 30.3%#84 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.4%#41 | 30.8%#85 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#80 | 34.9%#115 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.2%#88 | 40.2%#89 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 73.0%#21 | 50.1%#118 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.0%#75 | 41.9%#8 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UConn schedule · Wyoming schedule · all Week 13 projections
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