Matchup analysis
Our model projects Oklahoma 24, South Carolina 21 at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: Oklahoma wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 45.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
South Carolina is 4-3 against the 23rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.1 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+10.8 per game). Oklahoma is 4-3 against the 9th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.6 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+3.9 per game).
South Carolina's strong offense (19th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) meets Oklahoma's elite defense (5th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points South Carolina puts up. South Carolina's strong defense (28th) should limit Oklahoma's middle-of-the-pack offense (63rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Carolina by 20 and Oklahoma by 25 about 80% of the time.
Oklahoma gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oklahoma by about 0.3. The game is on SEC Network.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Carolina / Oklahoma) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oklahoma -5.5 | 44.5 | +170 / -205 |
| DraftKings | Oklahoma -5.5 | 44.5 | +164 / -198 |
| FanDuel | Oklahoma -5.5 | 44.5 | +176 / -215 |
| BetRivers | Oklahoma -5.5 | 44.5 | +165 / -215 |
| BetMGM | Oklahoma -5 | 44.5 | +165 / -200 |
| theScore Bet | Oklahoma -5.5 | 44.5 | +175 / -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Oklahoma -5.5 | 44.5 | +170 / -210 |
| Pinnacle | Oklahoma -5 | 44 | +170 / -199 |
| Bovada | Oklahoma -4.5 | 44 | +170 / -200 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oklahoma win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oklahoma -2.5 | 45.1 | 56% |
| Market consensus | Oklahoma -5.5 | 44.5 | 64% |
| Blended projection | Oklahoma -5 | 45.8 | 63% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oklahoma win probability
- model 56% · market (no-vig) 64% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model Oklahoma -2.4 · market Oklahoma -5.5 · difference -3.1 pts (Oklahoma view)
- Total
- model 45.1 · market 44.5 · difference +0.6
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Oklahoma 65%.
Model margin is 3.1 pts more toward South Carolina than the market.
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South Carolina vs Oklahoma: stat comparison
| Stat | South Carolina | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.1#21 | 21.6#110 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3#80 | 17.7#24 |
| Yards per play | 6.39#39 | 5.64#100 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.24#42 | 5.14#35 |
| Rushing yards per game | 220.1#18 | 123.1#126 |
| Net passing yards per game | 229.1#65 | 234.9#57 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 126.7#31 | 137.3#47 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 210.3#79 | 155.1#8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#56 | 1.71#135 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#89 | 0.57#109 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#23 | 3.29#6 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#89 | 2.43#106 |
| Stat | South Carolina | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15#40 | -0.05#131 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#91 | -0.12#5 |
| Success rate | 44.0%#58 | 36.5%#132 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.8%#89 | 34.0%#4 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1%#60 | 9.9%#129 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.3%#62 | 9.9%#19 |
| Havoc rate | 13.5%#80 | 15.1%#40 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2%#44 | 17.4%#135 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.86#15 | 3.31#124 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.73#130 | 2.75#4 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#87 | own 27#120 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#74 | own 32#127 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.3#20 | 63.4#92 |
| Stat | South Carolina | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.25#4 | -0.10#132 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#79 | -0.01#110 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#51 | -0.06#27 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16#107 | -0.19#5 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.1%#40 | 34.7%#134 |
| Passing success rate | 41.3%#73 | 38.0%#108 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.3%#14 | 19.6%#107 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9%#92 | 29.9%#91 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.7%#100 | 25.6%#22 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.5%#30 | 40.4%#74 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.6%#48 | 24.4%#2 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.0%#24 | 40.0%#136 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.7%#130 | 46.7%#19 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Carolina schedule · Oklahoma schedule · all Week 9 projections
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