Matchup analysis
Our model projects Old Dominion 24, Marshall 22 at S.B. Ballard Stadium in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: Old Dominion wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.9 points and 45.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Marshall is 4-3 against the 106th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.7 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-9 per game). Old Dominion is 2-6 against the 80th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.5 and allowing 26.8 points per game (-11.3 per game).
Expect Marshall to find it hard going: Old Dominion's middle-of-the-pack defense (81st) outranks Marshall's below-average offense (109th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense). Old Dominion's struggling offense (130th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.1 points against an average defense) meets Marshall's below-average defense (118th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Old Dominion puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Marshall by 20 and Old Dominion by 25 about 80% of the time.
Old Dominion gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Old Dominion by about 0.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Marshall / Old Dominion) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Marshall -2.5 | 45.25 | -143 / +120 |
| FanDuel | Marshall -2.5 | 45.5 | -144 / +120 |
| DraftKings | Marshall -2.5 | 45.5 | -142 / +120 |
| theScore Bet | Marshall -2.5 | 45.5 | -145 / +125 |
| BetMGM | Marshall -2.5 | 45.5 | -140 / +120 |
| Pinnacle | Marshall -2.5 | 45 | -137 / +119 |
| Bovada | Marshall -2.5 | 45 | -140 / +120 |
| BetRivers | Marshall -3 | 44.5 | -152 / +123 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Marshall -2.5 | 44.5 | -150 / +125 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Old Dominion win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Old Dominion -3 | 45.9 | 57% |
| Market consensus | Marshall -2.5 | 45.3 | 43% |
| Blended projection | Marshall -1.5 | 46.5 | 46% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Old Dominion win probability
- model 57% · market (no-vig) 43% · difference +14 pts
- Margin
- model Old Dominion -2.9 · market Marshall -2.5 · difference +5.4 pts (Old Dominion view)
- Total
- model 45.9 · market 45.25 · difference +0.6
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Old Dominion 44%.
Model margin is 5.4 pts more toward Old Dominion than the market.
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Marshall vs Old Dominion: stat comparison
| Stat | Marshall | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.7#109 | 15.5#133 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.7#117 | 26.8#97 |
| Yards per play | 5.93#78 | 4.06#138 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.65#130 | 4.99#23 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.1#74 | 115.4#133 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.0#56 | 129.0#133 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.7#118 | 146.4#58 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.0#116 | 205.8#68 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#113 | 1.25#118 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#99 | 0.75#87 |
| Sacks per game | 0.86#136 | 2.00#70 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#77 | 4.75#137 |
| Stat | Marshall | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#68 | -0.17#138 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#103 | -0.06#23 |
| Success rate | 44.1%#57 | 30.4%#138 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3%#98 | 39.3%#42 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4%#74 | 9.5%#132 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.3%#103 | 10.9%#44 |
| Havoc rate | 11.5%#121 | 14.8%#51 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#97 | 22.1%#138 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.20#127 | 2.87#135 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.80#68 | 3.71#57 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#92 | own 26#131 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#81 | own 35#136 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.9#51 | 60.1#120 |
| Stat | Marshall | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#38 | -0.12#136 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#90 | -0.23#136 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#53 | -0.14#5 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21#120 | +0.02#58 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.1%#30 | 32.9%#136 |
| Passing success rate | 41.6%#69 | 27.7%#137 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.0%#84 | 30.5%#138 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.4%#81 | 28.0%#105 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.2%#74 | 30.7%#81 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.1%#70 | 34.2%#119 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.8%#72 | 37.9%#60 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.9%#120 | 47.4%#128 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.0%#64 | 45.9%#16 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Marshall schedule · Old Dominion schedule · all Week 9 projections
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