Matchup analysis
Our model projects Memphis 30, Army 28 at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: Memphis wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.6 points and 57.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Army is 5-2 against the 107th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.3 and allowing 22.1 points per game (+13.2 per game). Memphis is 6-2 against the 104th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.1 and allowing 23.8 points per game (+12.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Army's middle-of-the-pack offense (64th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense) against Memphis's middle-of-the-pack defense (80th). Memphis's middle-of-the-pack offense (49th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Army's middle-of-the-pack defense (73rd); that mismatch is where most of Memphis's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Army by 20 and Memphis by 25 about 80% of the time.
Memphis gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Memphis by about 0.5. The game is on ESPNU.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Army / Memphis) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Memphis -6 | 59.5 | +187 / -227.5 |
| FanDuel | Memphis -6.5 | 59.5 | +172 / -210 |
| BetMGM | Memphis -5.5 | 59.5 | +185 / -225 |
| DraftKings | Memphis -6 | 59.5 | +190 / -230 |
| theScore Bet | Memphis -6.5 | 59.5 | +190 / -225 |
| Pinnacle | Memphis -6.5 | 59.5 | +189 / -225 |
| Bovada | Memphis -6 | 60 | +190 / -230 |
| BetRivers | Memphis -6 | 58.5 | +185 / -235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Memphis -5.5 | 58.5 | +185 / -230 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Memphis win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Memphis -2.5 | 57.6 | 57% |
| Market consensus | Memphis -6 | 59.5 | 66% |
| Blended projection | Memphis -5.5 | 59.4 | 65% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Memphis win probability
- model 57% · market (no-vig) 66% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model Memphis -2.6 · market Memphis -6 · difference -3.4 pts (Memphis view)
- Total
- model 57.6 · market 59.5 · difference -1.9
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Memphis 66%.
Model margin is 3.4 pts more toward Army than the market.
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Army vs Memphis: stat comparison
| Stat | Army | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.3#32 | 36.1#23 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.1#55 | 23.8#66 |
| Yards per play | 6.34#49 | 7.44#6 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.49#124 | 6.16#105 |
| Rushing yards per game | 337.0#2 | 240.9#9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 73.1#137 | 280.6#18 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.3#72 | 185.6#107 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 217.1#91 | 206.1#70 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.29#9 | 1.13#99 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.43#126 | 1.25#30 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#123 | 2.38#45 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.43#4 | 2.00#82 |
| Stat | Army | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.24#8 | +0.18#30 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.21#131 | +0.04#66 |
| Success rate | 49.4%#14 | 48.6%#21 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5%#112 | 38.1%#32 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#85 | 15.4%#17 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4%#123 | 14.5%#126 |
| Havoc rate | 12.5%#107 | 14.0%#67 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.5%#7 | 12.4%#47 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.76#24 | 4.44#41 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.59#48 | 3.46#38 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#59 | own 27#116 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#23 | own 28#46 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.7#80 | 70.1#22 |
| Stat | Army | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.26#3 | +0.15#31 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.19#37 | +0.22#30 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.18#131 | +0.12#110 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.25#124 | -0.05#35 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.8%#9 | 50.7%#11 |
| Passing success rate | 42.5%#63 | 47.7%#28 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.4%#4 | 12.9%#12 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.4%#51 | 34.2%#36 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.9%#128 | 24.9%#14 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.2%#14 | 43.8%#50 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.3%#127 | 32.7%#18 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.1%#17 | 55.0%#106 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.2%#43 | 57.3%#57 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Army schedule · Memphis schedule · all Week 9 projections
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