Matchup analysis
Our model projects Louisiana Tech 32, South Alabama 27 at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Louisiana Tech wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.3 points and 59.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Louisiana Tech is 5-2 against the 101st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.3 and allowing 21 points per game (+11.3 per game). South Alabama is 4-3 against the 103rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.1 and allowing 32.4 points per game (+2.7 per game).
Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (76th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over South Alabama's struggling defense (126th); that mismatch is where most of Louisiana Tech's projected points come from. South Alabama's middle-of-the-pack offense (60th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) meets Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack defense (57th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points South Alabama puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisiana Tech by 27 and South Alabama by 18 about 80% of the time.
South Alabama gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Louisiana Tech is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Louisiana Tech / South Alabama) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisiana Tech -5.5 | 57.5 | -212.5 / +177.5 |
| FanDuel | Louisiana Tech -5.5 | 57.5 | -200 / +164 |
| BetMGM | Louisiana Tech -5.5 | 57.5 | -210 / +175 |
| DraftKings | Louisiana Tech -5.5 | 57.5 | -218 / +180 |
| Pinnacle | Louisiana Tech -5.5 | 57.5 | -221 / +186 |
| theScore Bet | Louisiana Tech -5.5 | 58.5 | -215 / +180 |
| Bovada | Louisiana Tech -5.5 | 58 | -225 / +185 |
| BetRivers | Louisiana Tech -5 | 57.5 | -210 / +165 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Louisiana Tech -4.5 | 57.5 | -210 / +165 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Alabama win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisiana Tech -4.5 | 59.1 | 39% |
| Market consensus | Louisiana Tech -5.5 | 57.5 | 35% |
| Blended projection | Louisiana Tech -5.5 | 57.8 | 36% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Alabama win probability
- model 39% · market (no-vig) 35% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Louisiana Tech -4.3 · market Louisiana Tech -5.5 · difference +1.2 pts (South Alabama view)
- Total
- model 59.1 · market 57.5 · difference +1.6
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies South Alabama 35%.
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward South Alabama than the market.
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Louisiana Tech vs South Alabama: stat comparison
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.3#47 | 35.1#33 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.0#46 | 32.4#124 |
| Yards per play | 5.89#80 | 6.01#66 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.39#55 | 7.23#137 |
| Rushing yards per game | 159.6#84 | 224.4#15 |
| Net passing yards per game | 232.7#60 | 202.4#95 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 131.9#39 | 173.6#95 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 210.0#78 | 256.1#124 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#90 | 0.29#11 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.86#6 | 1.00#56 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#30 | 1.71#97 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29#103 | 1.00#19 |
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#57 | +0.12#52 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.11#9 | +0.23#136 |
| Success rate | 44.0%#59 | 42.2%#77 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.8%#20 | 46.5%#128 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#50 | 12.3%#75 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0%#96 | 14.1%#119 |
| Havoc rate | 18.0%#7 | 14.8%#53 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.0%#109 | 11.6%#34 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.74#97 | 4.10#71 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.43#35 | 4.40#113 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#4 | own 32#30 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#75 | own 31#114 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.6#66 | 71.0#15 |
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#97 | +0.08#71 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18#38 | +0.20#34 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08#16 | +0.22#135 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.14#14 | +0.23#122 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.4%#102 | 44.4%#71 |
| Passing success rate | 46.6%#33 | 40.6%#82 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.4%#91 | 15.5%#40 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.7%#23 | 32.1%#59 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9%#34 | 36.5%#124 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.9%#28 | 40.8%#72 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8%#83 | 43.1%#113 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.3%#33 | 62.0%#70 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 38.6%#5 | 73.6%#129 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisiana Tech schedule · South Alabama schedule · all Week 9 projections
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