Matchup analysis
Our model projects Oklahoma State 28, Iowa State 27 at Jack Trice Stadium in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: Oklahoma State wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 55.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Oklahoma State (No. 24) is 5-2 against the 60th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 40 and allowing 23.7 points per game (+16.3 per game). Iowa State is 3-4 against the 29th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.9 and allowing 24.1 points per game (+1.8 per game).
Oklahoma State's strong offense (37th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack defense (56th); that mismatch is where most of Oklahoma State's projected points come from. Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack offense (77th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) meets Oklahoma State's middle-of-the-pack defense (77th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Iowa State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oklahoma State by 24 and Iowa State by 22 about 80% of the time.
Iowa State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Oklahoma State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FS1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Oklahoma State / Iowa State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oklahoma State -9.5 | 57.5 | -350 / +277.5 |
| FanDuel | Oklahoma State -9.5 | 58.5 | -330 / +260 |
| BetRivers | Oklahoma State -9.5 | 56.5 | -400 / +295 |
| DraftKings | Oklahoma State -9.5 | 57.5 | -340 / +270 |
| theScore Bet | Oklahoma State -8.5 | 57.5 | -340 / +270 |
| BetMGM | Oklahoma State -8.5 | 57.5 | -325 / +270 |
| Pinnacle | Oklahoma State -9.5 | 57 | -360 / +285 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Oklahoma State -9.5 | 56.5 | -400 / +300 |
| Bovada | Oklahoma State -9 | 57.5 | -370 / +285 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Iowa State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oklahoma State -1 | 55.2 | 47% |
| Market consensus | Oklahoma State -9.5 | 57.5 | 25% |
| Blended projection | Oklahoma State -8 | 57.6 | 29% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Iowa State win probability
- model 47% · market (no-vig) 25% · difference +22 pts
- Margin
- model Oklahoma State -1 · market Oklahoma State -9.5 · difference +8.5 pts (Iowa State view)
- Total
- model 55.2 · market 57.5 · difference -2.3
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Iowa State 25%.
Model margin is 8.5 pts more toward Iowa State than the market.
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Oklahoma State vs Iowa State: stat comparison
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.0#8 | 25.9#90 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.7#65 | 24.1#70 |
| Yards per play | 7.57#5 | 5.65#99 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.81#84 | 6.17#107 |
| Rushing yards per game | 195.1#39 | 174.1#60 |
| Net passing yards per game | 347.6#2 | 169.4#122 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 152.0#67 | 166.4#91 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 232.1#105 | 212.9#84 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#125 | 0.43#17 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#57 | 0.71#90 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#62 | 1.43#110 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14#25 | 1.71#59 |
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19#21 | +0.08#71 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#98 | +0.07#84 |
| Success rate | 49.7%#13 | 38.7%#121 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#93 | 42.4%#83 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.7%#7 | 13.2%#58 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#45 | 11.9%#73 |
| Havoc rate | 12.6%#104 | 12.9%#98 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.2%#27 | 17.0%#133 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.40#43 | 4.21#53 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.90#79 | 3.80#67 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#72 | own 27#124 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#87 | own 30#89 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.7#11 | 60.9#116 |
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#57 | +0.08#65 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#19 | +0.08#73 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#62 | +0.03#63 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#112 | +0.12#94 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.9%#31 | 38.9%#114 |
| Passing success rate | 51.2%#14 | 38.4%#107 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.2%#22 | 20.9%#122 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.1%#21 | 28.0%#104 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.0%#25 | 25.9%#23 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.3%#94 | 30.5%#134 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#70 | 36.0%#41 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.8%#113 | 66.7%#41 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.2%#96 | 65.0%#94 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oklahoma State schedule · Iowa State schedule · all Week 9 projections
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