Matchup analysis
Our model projects Nebraska 30, Washington 22 at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Nebraska wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.3 points and 51.6 combined points.
Washington is 4-3 against the 65th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.9 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+5.2 per game). Nebraska is 5-2 against the 31st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.6 and allowing 15.4 points per game (+20.2 per game).
Nebraska's strong defense (17th) should limit Washington's strong offense (40th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Nebraska's strong offense (22nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.6 points against an average defense) against Washington's strong defense (40th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Washington by 14 and Nebraska by 31 about 80% of the time.
Nebraska gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Nebraska by about 6.2. The game is on BTN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Washington / Nebraska) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Nebraska -7.5 | 49.5 | +250 / -308 |
| FanDuel | Nebraska -7.5 | 49.5 | +255 / -320 |
| DraftKings | Nebraska -7.5 | 49.5 | +250 / -310 |
| BetRivers | Nebraska -8.5 | 49.5 | +285 / -385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Nebraska -8.5 | 49.5 | +275 / -375 |
| BetMGM | Nebraska -8 | 49.5 | +250 / -300 |
| theScore Bet | Nebraska -7.5 | 49.5 | +240 / -290 |
| Pinnacle | Nebraska -7.5 | 50 | +248 / -306 |
| Bovada | Nebraska -7.5 | 50 | +250 / -300 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Nebraska win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Nebraska -8.5 | 51.6 | 71% |
| Market consensus | Nebraska -7.5 | 49.5 | 73% |
| Blended projection | Nebraska -7.5 | 50.5 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Nebraska win probability
- model 71% · market (no-vig) 73% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Nebraska -8.3 · market Nebraska -7.5 · difference +0.8 pts (Nebraska view)
- Total
- model 51.6 · market 49.5 · difference +2.1
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Nebraska 74%.
Model margin is 0.8 pts more toward Nebraska than the market.
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Washington vs Nebraska: stat comparison
| Stat | Washington | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.9#76 | 35.6#29 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7#57 | 15.4#14 |
| Yards per play | 6.08#61 | 6.08#59 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.47#62 | 5.08#32 |
| Rushing yards per game | 122.4#127 | 208.7#26 |
| Net passing yards per game | 262.6#32 | 223.6#69 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.3#51 | 118.6#22 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.9#69 | 181.3#29 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#59 | 0.57#32 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#14 | 1.29#24 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#82 | 2.57#26 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#128 | 1.86#70 |
| Stat | Washington | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#83 | +0.13#45 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#40 | -0.14#4 |
| Success rate | 43.9%#60 | 44.2%#54 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7%#49 | 33.4%#3 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.0%#35 | 13.4%#57 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#43 | 9.8%#18 |
| Havoc rate | 16.8%#14 | 16.0%#22 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3%#71 | 13.0%#59 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.36#46 | 4.93#14 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.95#85 | 3.00#8 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#104 | own 29#83 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#97 | own 28#53 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3#95 | 71.1#13 |
| Stat | Washington | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02#117 | +0.16#23 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#62 | +0.11#66 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#26 | -0.04#32 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#65 | -0.22#4 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.6%#100 | 44.9%#62 |
| Passing success rate | 46.3%#34 | 43.4%#55 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.2%#117 | 17.1%#72 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.3%#114 | 38.3%#14 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.1%#64 | 18.8%#2 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.5%#118 | 50.0%#17 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.6%#17 | 23.9%#1 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.1%#69 | 78.6%#5 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.1%#80 | 43.8%#14 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Washington schedule · Nebraska schedule · all Week 9 projections
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