Matchup analysis
Our model projects Indiana 33, Minnesota 8 at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: Indiana wins about 95% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 25 points and 40.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Minnesota is 5-2 against the 75th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+6.5 per game). Indiana (No. 4) is 7-1 against the 32nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.6 and allowing 12 points per game (+21.6 per game).
Expect Minnesota to find it hard going: Indiana's elite defense (1st) outranks Minnesota's below-average offense (92nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.4 points against an average defense). Indiana's elite offense (9th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Minnesota's strong defense (37th); that mismatch is where most of Indiana's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Indiana by 2 and Indiana by 48 about 80% of the time.
Indiana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Indiana by about 22.9. The game is on CBS.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Minnesota / Indiana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Indiana -20.5 | 42.5 | +850 / -1525 |
| DraftKings | Indiana -20.5 | 42.5 | +850 / -1450 |
| FanDuel | Indiana -20.5 | 42.5 | +980 / -2000 |
| theScore Bet | Indiana -20.5 | 42.5 | +1000 / -2000 |
| BetRivers | Indiana -20.5 | 42.5 | +850 / -1667 |
| BetMGM | Indiana -20 | 42.5 | +950 / -1400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Indiana -20.5 | 42.5 | +850 / -1600 |
| Pinnacle | Indiana -20 | 41.5 | +774 / -1302 |
| Bovada | Indiana -20.5 | 42 | +750 / -1400 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Indiana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Indiana -25 | 40.9 | 95% |
| Market consensus | Indiana -20.5 | 42.5 | 90% |
| Blended projection | Indiana -21.5 | 43.8 | 93% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Indiana win probability
- model 95% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Indiana -25 · market Indiana -20.5 · difference +4.5 pts (Indiana view)
- Total
- model 40.9 · market 42.5 · difference -1.6
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Indiana 92%.
Model margin is 4.5 pts more toward Indiana than the market.
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Minnesota vs Indiana: stat comparison
| Stat | Minnesota | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.6#83 | 33.6#38 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.1#35 | 12.0#2 |
| Yards per play | 5.41#117 | 7.15#9 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.82#16 | 4.55#6 |
| Rushing yards per game | 107.0#135 | 200.1#32 |
| Net passing yards per game | 230.7#64 | 225.1#67 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 134.4#41 | 102.5#6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 146.0#6 | 184.3#34 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#82 | 0.25#6 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#21 | 1.13#39 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#57 | 3.50#5 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.86#10 | 1.38#40 |
| Stat | Minnesota | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05#130 | +0.14#41 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#19 | -0.11#8 |
| Success rate | 39.8%#113 | 45.0%#47 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7%#48 | 34.9%#13 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9%#91 | 16.7%#6 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#48 | 10.2%#25 |
| Havoc rate | 17.7%#10 | 15.9%#27 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#79 | 11.6%#32 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.57#108 | 4.31#49 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.50#117 | 2.87#5 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#5 | own 32#20 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#15 | own 27#30 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.4#103 | 59.5#124 |
| Stat | Minnesota | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14#137 | +0.05#83 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00#104 | +0.25#22 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#79 | -0.13#6 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.17#7 | -0.09#24 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.8%#128 | 42.3%#88 |
| Passing success rate | 41.3%#74 | 48.2%#24 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.9%#134 | 14.1%#19 |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.2%#137 | 33.0%#42 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.3%#96 | 30.3%#75 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.4%#112 | 44.7%#37 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.1%#8 | 35.2%#35 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.9%#82 | 67.7%#40 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.4%#98 | 41.2%#7 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Minnesota schedule · Indiana schedule · all Week 9 projections
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