Matchup analysis
Our model projects Georgia State 33, Coastal Carolina 25 at Center Parc Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Georgia State wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.3 points and 57.8 combined points.
Coastal Carolina is 2-5 against the 115th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.1 and allowing 25.9 points per game (+0.2 per game). Georgia State is 4-3 against the 126th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.9 and allowing 26 points per game (+9.9 per game).
Coastal Carolina's below-average offense (113th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense) meets Georgia State's below-average defense (114th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Coastal Carolina puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Georgia State's middle-of-the-pack offense (72nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) against Coastal Carolina's below-average defense (117th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Coastal Carolina by 15 and Georgia State by 30 about 80% of the time.
Georgia State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Georgia State by about 5.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Coastal Carolina / Georgia State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia State -6.5 | 58 | +200 / -242.5 |
| FanDuel | Georgia State -6.5 | 58.5 | +210 / -260 |
| BetMGM | Georgia State -6.5 | 57.5 | +200 / -235 |
| DraftKings | Georgia State -6.5 | 58.5 | +200 / -245 |
| theScore Bet | Georgia State -6.5 | 57.5 | +200 / -240 |
| Pinnacle | Georgia State -6.5 | 58 | +200 / -239 |
| Bovada | Georgia State -6.5 | 58 | +200 / -240 |
| BetRivers | Georgia State -6.5 | 58.5 | +210 / -275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Georgia State -6.5 | 57.5 | +210 / -275 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia State -7.5 | 57.8 | 68% |
| Market consensus | Georgia State -6.5 | 58.0 | 68% |
| Blended projection | Georgia State -6.5 | 58.2 | 68% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia State win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 68% · difference -0 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia State -7.3 · market Georgia State -6.5 · difference +0.8 pts (Georgia State view)
- Total
- model 57.8 · market 58 · difference -0.2
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Georgia State 68%.
Model margin is 0.8 pts more toward Georgia State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State: stat comparison
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.1#89 | 35.9#28 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9#90 | 26.0#92 |
| Yards per play | 5.96#75 | 6.77#20 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.46#121 | 5.71#79 |
| Rushing yards per game | 167.4#69 | 204.6#28 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.9#83 | 250.1#44 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 216.9#130 | 159.9#80 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 206.6#71 | 193.4#47 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#112 | 1.29#124 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#62 | 0.43#129 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#64 | 3.00#11 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.71#121 | 1.00#16 |
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#108 | +0.18#25 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#111 | +0.09#95 |
| Success rate | 39.4%#116 | 46.6%#37 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0%#121 | 39.4%#44 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0%#64 | 16.3%#9 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9%#116 | 15.2%#131 |
| Havoc rate | 13.7%#73 | 14.7%#59 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2%#114 | 11.9%#36 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.79#95 | 4.51#35 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.47#39 | 3.39#32 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#91 | own 29#80 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#77 | own 33#130 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1#87 | 67.1#58 |
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#90 | +0.15#30 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#111 | +0.22#27 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#115 | +0.15#127 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13#97 | +0.04#66 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.9%#84 | 45.8%#54 |
| Passing success rate | 37.1%#114 | 47.6%#29 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.3%#56 | 17.0%#70 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0%#73 | 36.6%#24 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0%#71 | 25.2%#16 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.2%#98 | 46.7%#29 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.6%#126 | 29.9%#7 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.5%#66 | 60.9%#74 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.3%#51 | 55.2%#48 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Coastal Carolina schedule · Georgia State schedule · all Week 9 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.