Matchup analysis
Our model projects East Carolina 32, Temple 21 at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: East Carolina wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11 points and 52.6 combined points.
Temple is 2-5 against the 87th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 28 points per game (-2.3 per game). East Carolina is 3-4 against the 95th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-1.3 per game).
East Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (74th) should limit Temple's below-average offense (104th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: East Carolina's below-average offense (93rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense) against Temple's struggling defense (122nd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Temple by 12 and East Carolina by 34 about 80% of the time.
East Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour East Carolina by about 8.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Temple / East Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | East Carolina -6 | 49.5 | +191.5 / -232.5 |
| FanDuel | East Carolina -5.5 | 49.5 | +184 / -225 |
| DraftKings | East Carolina -6 | 49.5 | +190 / -230 |
| BetMGM | East Carolina -6 | 49.5 | +190 / -235 |
| theScore Bet | East Carolina -6.5 | 50.5 | +200 / -240 |
| Pinnacle | East Carolina -6 | 50 | +193 / -230 |
| Bovada | East Carolina -6 | 50 | +190 / -230 |
| BetRivers | East Carolina -6 | 49.5 | +195 / -250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | East Carolina -6.5 | 49.5 | +195 / -250 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | East Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | East Carolina -11 | 52.6 | 76% |
| Market consensus | East Carolina -6 | 49.5 | 67% |
| Blended projection | East Carolina -7 | 50.5 | 68% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- East Carolina win probability
- model 76% · market (no-vig) 67% · difference +9 pts
- Margin
- model East Carolina -11 · market East Carolina -6 · difference +5.0 pts (East Carolina view)
- Total
- model 52.6 · market 49.5 · difference +3.1
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies East Carolina 68%.
Model margin is 5.0 pts more toward East Carolina than the market.
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Temple vs East Carolina: stat comparison
| Stat | Temple | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.7#91 | 25.0#94 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.0#104 | 26.3#94 |
| Yards per play | 6.61#30 | 5.50#111 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.28#114 | 5.12#34 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.4#27 | 160.6#83 |
| Net passing yards per game | 175.7#118 | 202.7#94 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 163.0#87 | 159.4#78 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.1#117 | 202.1#58 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#33 | 1.14#110 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#113 | 0.86#81 |
| Sacks per game | 1.29#114 | 2.57#33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#92 | 2.29#104 |
| Stat | Temple | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#35 | +0.01#109 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18#126 | -0.07#20 |
| Success rate | 43.3%#65 | 38.6%#122 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.6%#125 | 36.1%#22 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.4%#18 | 12.3%#77 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.3%#122 | 13.1%#102 |
| Havoc rate | 9.5%#138 | 16.3%#20 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.4%#16 | 13.2%#69 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.60#107 | 3.41#119 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.50#118 | 3.89#77 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#123 | own 30#65 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#91 | own 30#98 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.1#130 | 66.0#69 |
| Stat | Temple | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#20 | +0.00#111 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17#42 | +0.02#98 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#111 | -0.07#22 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#128 | -0.07#30 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.1%#50 | 37.7%#121 |
| Passing success rate | 39.5%#94 | 37.6%#112 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.4%#57 | 17.7%#82 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.2%#71 | 25.9%#120 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.9%#135 | 30.4%#76 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.7%#59 | 33.7%#122 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.6%#135 | 35.2%#36 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.5%#116 | 44.8%#132 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.5%#86 | 56.7%#53 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Temple schedule · East Carolina schedule · all Week 9 projections
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