Matchup analysis
Our model projects South Carolina 28, Clemson 22 at Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) in Week 13. That is a lean: South Carolina wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.1 points and 49.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
South Carolina is 4-3 against the 21st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.1 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+10.8 per game). Clemson is 4-3 against the 26th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.4 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+0.1 per game).
South Carolina's strong offense (19th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) meets Clemson's strong defense (30th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points South Carolina puts up. Expect Clemson to find it hard going: South Carolina's strong defense (28th) outranks Clemson's middle-of-the-pack offense (74th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Carolina by 29 and Clemson by 16 about 80% of the time.
Clemson gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Carolina is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Carolina / Clemson) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Clemson -3 | 53.5 | +136 / -162 |
| DraftKings | Clemson -3 | 53.5 | +136 / -162 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Clemson win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Carolina -6 | 49.3 | 35% |
| Market consensus | Clemson -3 | 53.5 | 59% |
| Blended projection | Clemson -1.5 | 53.8 | 54% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Clemson win probability
- model 35% · market (no-vig) 59% · difference -25 pts
- Margin
- model South Carolina -6.1 · market Clemson -3 · difference -9.1 pts (Clemson view)
- Total
- model 49.3 · market 53.5 · difference -4.2
Model margin is 9.1 pts more toward South Carolina than the market.
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South Carolina vs Clemson: stat comparison
| Stat | South Carolina | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.1#21 | 21.4#112 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3#80 | 21.3#52 |
| Yards per play | 6.39#39 | 5.24#123 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.24#42 | 4.80#14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 220.1#18 | 162.3#80 |
| Net passing yards per game | 229.1#65 | 189.7#107 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 126.7#31 | 144.9#57 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 210.3#79 | 171.0#20 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#56 | 1.14#108 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#89 | 0.57#116 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#23 | 2.86#16 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#89 | 3.00#131 |
| Stat | South Carolina | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15#40 | -0.07#132 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#91 | -0.06#24 |
| Success rate | 44.0%#58 | 37.1%#129 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.8%#89 | 40.6%#66 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1%#60 | 10.6%#123 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.3%#62 | 10.3%#31 |
| Havoc rate | 13.5%#80 | 17.0%#13 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2%#44 | 15.2%#113 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.86#15 | 3.23#126 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.73#130 | 3.17#16 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#87 | own 32#31 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#74 | own 26#18 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.3#20 | 67.1#59 |
| Stat | South Carolina | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.25#4 | +0.04#91 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#79 | -0.16#134 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#51 | +0.05#80 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16#107 | -0.15#11 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.1%#40 | 38.3%#117 |
| Passing success rate | 41.3%#73 | 36.0%#120 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.3%#14 | 19.0%#99 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9%#92 | 30.1%#86 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.7%#100 | 35.9%#123 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.5%#30 | 32.3%#129 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.6%#48 | 33.3%#24 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.0%#24 | 40.9%#135 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.7%#130 | 58.8%#71 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Carolina schedule · Clemson schedule · all Week 13 projections
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