Matchup analysis
Our model projects LSU 37, Arkansas 16 at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Week 13. That is a heavy edge: LSU wins about 91% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 20.9 points and 52.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
LSU (No. 15) is 6-2 against the 18th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 40.1 and allowing 16 points per game (+24.1 per game). Arkansas is 3-4 against the 8th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21 and allowing 26.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: LSU's elite offense (7th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 37.4 points against an average defense) against Arkansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (68th). LSU's elite defense (8th) should limit Arkansas's middle-of-the-pack offense (79th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between LSU by 43 and Arkansas by 2 about 80% of the time.
Arkansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. LSU is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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LSU vs Arkansas: stat comparison
| Stat | LSU | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.1#7 | 21.0#115 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.0#17 | 26.7#96 |
| Yards per play | 6.68#24 | 5.08#130 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.51#4 | 6.21#109 |
| Rushing yards per game | 198.0#33 | 125.6#124 |
| Net passing yards per game | 330.3#4 | 221.6#71 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 111.9#14 | 156.1#71 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 159.3#13 | 207.7#73 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#115 | 1.00#76 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13#38 | 1.00#46 |
| Sacks per game | 3.88#3 | 1.43#109 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.63#56 | 2.29#99 |
| Stat | LSU | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#29 | -0.03#125 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.21#1 | +0.10#101 |
| Success rate | 51.1%#4 | 43.2%#66 |
| Success rate allowed | 32.9%#1 | 44.0%#103 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2%#32 | 9.7%#131 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.4%#12 | 13.8%#111 |
| Havoc rate | 20.7%#1 | 13.5%#79 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0%#38 | 13.6%#78 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.81#20 | 3.68#103 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.33#25 | 5.21#137 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#33 | own 27#125 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#42 | own 30#95 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 79.1#2 | 68.3#42 |
| Stat | LSU | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#58 | -0.04#121 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.25#21 | -0.02#112 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.14#4 | +0.21#134 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.26#2 | -0.02#41 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.5%#25 | 41.1%#97 |
| Passing success rate | 53.6%#7 | 45.0%#44 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.1%#71 | 16.1%#52 |
| Passing-down success rate | 43.6%#4 | 27.5%#111 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.2%#10 | 21.2%#3 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.7%#5 | 42.4%#61 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.5%#30 | 44.6%#120 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.8%#34 | 57.7%#94 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.9%#60 | 85.2%#138 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: LSU schedule · Arkansas schedule · all Week 13 projections
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