Matchup analysis
Our model projects Houston 30, Baylor 23 at TDECU Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: Houston wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.9 points and 53.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Baylor is 4-3 against the 63rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.1 and allowing 16.1 points per game (+13 per game). Houston (No. 18) is 6-2 against the 36th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36 and allowing 21 points per game (+15 per game).
Houston's strong defense (31st) should limit Baylor's middle-of-the-pack offense (52nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.6 points against an average defense). Houston's strong offense (27th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.3 points against an average defense) meets Baylor's strong defense (41st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Houston puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Baylor by 16 and Houston by 29 about 80% of the time.
Houston gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Houston by about 4.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Baylor vs Houston: stat comparison
| Stat | Baylor | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.1#67 | 36.0#25 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.1#19 | 21.0#45 |
| Yards per play | 5.60#107 | 6.80#19 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.70#11 | 6.10#99 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.4#76 | 209.6#25 |
| Net passing yards per game | 273.9#20 | 266.6#29 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 124.9#28 | 114.4#16 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.3#88 | 248.8#119 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#126 | 0.63#40 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.57#10 | 1.38#19 |
| Sacks per game | 4.00#2 | 1.75#89 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#83 | 1.25#28 |
| Stat | Baylor | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#113 | +0.20#18 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.11#7 | +0.13#114 |
| Success rate | 38.4%#123 | 51.7%#3 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9%#14 | 43.9%#102 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2%#83 | 12.5%#70 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.4%#33 | 13.4%#104 |
| Havoc rate | 18.7%#4 | 17.7%#9 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#85 | 10.8%#21 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.16#129 | 4.46#37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.05#10 | 4.64#124 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#16 | own 33#14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#63 | own 24#1 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 78.3#3 | 70.0#23 |
| Stat | Baylor | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05#122 | +0.10#56 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#86 | +0.33#10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.11#9 | +0.09#98 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.11#20 | +0.15#102 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3%#104 | 49.8%#14 |
| Passing success rate | 36.9%#115 | 53.9%#5 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#51 | 12.6%#10 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0%#61 | 45.5%#2 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.9%#24 | 32.1%#105 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#84 | 61.0%#1 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.7%#40 | 38.5%#67 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.3%#125 | 69.0%#38 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 38.1%#4 | 72.7%#127 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Baylor schedule · Houston schedule · all Week 13 projections
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