Matchup analysis
Our model projects Georgia 44, Georgia Tech 15 at Sanford Stadium in Week 13. That is a heavy edge: Georgia wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 28.8 points and 58.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Georgia Tech is 2-5 against the 43rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-3.6 per game). Georgia (No. 3) is 6-1 against the 52nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 43 and allowing 15.9 points per game (+27.1 per game).
Georgia's elite defense (7th) should limit Georgia Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (66th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Georgia's elite offense (3rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.4 points against an average defense) against Georgia Tech's below-average defense (89th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia by 6 and Georgia by 51 about 80% of the time.
Georgia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Georgia by about 26.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Georgia Tech vs Georgia: stat comparison
| Stat | Georgia Tech | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.7#82 | 43.0#3 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.3#114 | 15.9#16 |
| Yards per play | 6.50#34 | 7.69#3 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.10#98 | 4.65#10 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.1#104 | 202.1#31 |
| Net passing yards per game | 255.4#40 | 255.7#39 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 222.7#131 | 116.0#19 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.0#40 | 177.7#24 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#103 | 0.57#29 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.29#135 | 1.14#33 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71#96 | 3.00#10 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29#100 | 1.14#22 |
| Stat | Georgia Tech | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#50 | +0.24#7 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.22#132 | -0.05#25 |
| Success rate | 44.8%#49 | 53.4%#1 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8%#119 | 34.4%#7 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.2%#11 | 17.3%#5 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7%#109 | 9.7%#17 |
| Havoc rate | 11.3%#124 | 15.9%#25 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8%#107 | 10.6%#18 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.93#87 | 5.22#2 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.07#96 | 3.73#59 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#98 | own 31#40 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#113 | own 28#41 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.4#113 | 59.6#122 |
| Stat | Georgia Tech | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#32 | +0.19#13 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11#65 | +0.30#15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.17#129 | -0.07#23 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29#131 | -0.04#37 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.8%#63 | 52.8%#2 |
| Passing success rate | 44.8%#47 | 54.5%#4 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.1%#100 | 14.2%#20 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.4%#79 | 39.4%#12 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.9%#134 | 23.2%#6 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.0%#114 | 56.9%#3 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.7%#121 | 39.0%#73 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.0%#117 | 83.3%#2 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.6%#38 | 72.9%#128 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia Tech schedule · Georgia schedule · all Week 13 projections
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