Matchup analysis
Our model projects Oklahoma State 30, Kansas 28 at Boone Pickens Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Oklahoma State wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.9 points and 58.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Kansas is 3-4 against the 64th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31 and allowing 24 points per game (+7 per game). Oklahoma State (No. 24) is 5-2 against the 60th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 40 and allowing 23.7 points per game (+16.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Kansas's middle-of-the-pack offense (51st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.8 points against an average defense) against Oklahoma State's middle-of-the-pack defense (77th). Oklahoma State's strong offense (37th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Kansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (54th); that mismatch is where most of Oklahoma State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kansas by 21 and Oklahoma State by 24 about 80% of the time.
Oklahoma State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Kansas would be favoured by 0.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Kansas vs Oklahoma State: stat comparison
| Stat | Kansas | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.0#55 | 40.0#8 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0#68 | 23.7#65 |
| Yards per play | 6.48#35 | 7.57#5 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.59#67 | 5.81#84 |
| Rushing yards per game | 215.6#22 | 195.1#39 |
| Net passing yards per game | 240.1#51 | 347.6#2 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.1#98 | 152.0#67 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 179.3#27 | 232.1#105 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#79 | 1.29#125 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#110 | 1.00#57 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71#94 | 2.14#62 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57#51 | 1.14#25 |
| Stat | Kansas | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#65 | +0.19#21 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#37 | +0.09#98 |
| Success rate | 41.2%#96 | 49.7%#13 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.6%#36 | 43.0%#93 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.2%#10 | 16.7%#7 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#65 | 10.9%#45 |
| Havoc rate | 15.9%#26 | 12.6%#104 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#92 | 11.2%#27 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.92#89 | 4.40#43 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.21#19 | 3.90#79 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#121 | own 30#72 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#129 | own 30#87 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.3#21 | 71.7#11 |
| Stat | Kansas | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#44 | +0.10#57 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#82 | +0.28#19 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#35 | +0.02#62 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02#55 | +0.17#112 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.7%#65 | 47.9%#31 |
| Passing success rate | 37.3%#113 | 51.2%#14 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.6%#5 | 14.2%#22 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.8%#125 | 37.1%#21 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.4%#51 | 26.0%#25 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4%#104 | 38.3%#94 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.0%#21 | 38.5%#70 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.9%#39 | 53.8%#113 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.0%#49 | 65.2%#96 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kansas schedule · Oklahoma State schedule · all Week 13 projections
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