Matchup analysis
Our model projects Memphis 36, Temple 22 at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Memphis wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.9 points and 57.7 combined points.
Temple is 2-5 against the 84th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 28 points per game (-2.3 per game). Memphis is 6-2 against the 104th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.1 and allowing 23.8 points per game (+12.3 per game).
Expect Temple to find it hard going: Memphis's middle-of-the-pack defense (80th) outranks Temple's below-average offense (104th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense). Memphis's middle-of-the-pack offense (49th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Temple's struggling defense (122nd); that mismatch is where most of Memphis's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Temple by 9 and Memphis by 36 about 80% of the time.
Memphis gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Memphis by about 11.8. The game is on ESPN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Temple vs Memphis: stat comparison
| Stat | Temple | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.7#91 | 36.1#23 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.0#104 | 23.8#66 |
| Yards per play | 6.61#30 | 7.44#6 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.28#114 | 6.16#105 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.4#27 | 240.9#9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 175.7#118 | 280.6#18 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 163.0#87 | 185.6#107 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.1#117 | 206.1#70 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#33 | 1.13#99 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#113 | 1.25#30 |
| Sacks per game | 1.29#114 | 2.38#45 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#92 | 2.00#82 |
| Stat | Temple | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#35 | +0.18#30 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18#126 | +0.04#66 |
| Success rate | 43.3%#65 | 48.6%#21 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.6%#125 | 38.1%#32 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.4%#18 | 15.4%#17 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.3%#122 | 14.5%#126 |
| Havoc rate | 9.5%#138 | 14.0%#67 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.4%#16 | 12.4%#47 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.60#107 | 4.44#41 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.50#118 | 3.46#38 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#123 | own 27#116 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#91 | own 28#46 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.1#130 | 70.1#22 |
| Stat | Temple | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#20 | +0.15#31 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17#42 | +0.22#30 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#111 | +0.12#110 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#128 | -0.05#35 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.1%#50 | 50.7%#11 |
| Passing success rate | 39.5%#94 | 47.7%#28 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.4%#57 | 12.9%#12 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.2%#71 | 34.2%#36 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.9%#135 | 24.9%#14 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.7%#59 | 43.8%#50 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.6%#135 | 32.7%#18 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.5%#116 | 55.0%#106 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.5%#86 | 57.3%#57 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Temple schedule · Memphis schedule · all Week 13 projections
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