Matchup analysis
Our model projects Louisiana 30, Georgia State 29 at Center Parc Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Louisiana wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 58.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Louisiana is 5-3 against the 110th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.1 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+8.8 per game). Georgia State is 4-3 against the 126th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.9 and allowing 26 points per game (+9.9 per game).
Louisiana's middle-of-the-pack offense (83rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Georgia State's below-average defense (114th); that mismatch is where most of Louisiana's projected points come from. Georgia State's middle-of-the-pack offense (72nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) meets Louisiana's middle-of-the-pack defense (83rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Georgia State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisiana by 24 and Georgia State by 22 about 80% of the time.
Georgia State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Louisiana is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Louisiana vs Georgia State: stat comparison
| Stat | Louisiana | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.1#60 | 35.9#28 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3#51 | 26.0#92 |
| Yards per play | 5.60#106 | 6.77#20 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.22#39 | 5.71#79 |
| Rushing yards per game | 195.1#38 | 204.6#28 |
| Net passing yards per game | 180.3#116 | 250.1#44 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 137.1#46 | 159.9#80 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 183.9#32 | 193.4#47 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#54 | 1.29#124 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13#40 | 0.43#129 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#108 | 3.00#11 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#49 | 1.00#16 |
| Stat | Louisiana | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#80 | +0.18#25 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00#47 | +0.09#95 |
| Success rate | 42.3%#76 | 46.6%#37 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.1%#60 | 39.4%#44 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1%#115 | 16.3%#9 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5%#36 | 15.2%#131 |
| Havoc rate | 13.8%#69 | 14.7%#59 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8%#23 | 11.9%#36 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18#58 | 4.51#35 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.77#63 | 3.39#32 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#11 | own 29#80 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#31 | own 33#130 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.0#62 | 67.1#58 |
| Stat | Louisiana | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#46 | +0.15#30 |
| Passing EPA per play | 0.00#108 | +0.22#27 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#64 | +0.15#127 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#40 | +0.04#66 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.8%#85 | 45.8%#54 |
| Passing success rate | 41.5%#71 | 47.6%#29 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.7%#66 | 17.0%#70 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.0%#43 | 36.6%#24 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.4%#52 | 25.2%#16 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.6%#73 | 46.7%#29 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.2%#64 | 29.9%#7 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.2%#37 | 60.9%#74 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.8%#115 | 55.2%#48 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisiana schedule · Georgia State schedule · all Week 13 projections
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