Matchup analysis
Our model projects Utah State 31, TBD 19 at Maverik Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Utah State wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.9 points and 50.4 combined points.
TBD has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Utah State is 2-5 against the 38th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.9 and allowing 23 points per game (-8.1 per game).
TBD's middle-of-the-pack offense (71st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.1 points against an average defense) meets Utah State's middle-of-the-pack defense (64th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points TBD puts up. TBD's middle-of-the-pack defense (63rd) should limit Utah State's below-average offense (109th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between TBD by 11 and Utah State by 34 about 80% of the time.
Utah State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Utah State by about 9.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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More: TBD schedule · Utah State schedule · all Week 13 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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