Alert records

Pattern tags

Chip combinations (and a few gaps between our pregame number and the book's) that have lined up with one result. The main record counts week 3 on: weeks 1–2 are noisy while teams are still unknown, so they are shown faded as the early season. Each record is compared with a base: how often the same result happened in those weeks' games on similar closing spreads, FBS v FCS games compared only with each other. A pattern becomes a Pattern alert only on games played after it was written down: 25+ of them, with the low end of a 90% confidence range at least 3 points above that base. It drops back automatically if it slips. A pattern marked Promoted by owner is an alert by the site owner's call before it has cleared that bar; its record is shown exactly as it stands. Totals and spreads are the last book line before kickoff; our numbers are the ones we posted before kickoff.

Loading patterns…

Records only, not advice. 21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Study patterns (2022–26)

Line, schedule and team-stat combinations from a search of every lined game since 2022, each checked on games the search never saw. Most combinations that look good in one stretch fade in the next, so only the ones that held up out of sample are shown, labelled by how strong that check was: Strong (held in every season, out-of-sample chance level under 0.1%), Moderate (under 2%, 5+ of 6 seasons), Lean (under 5%). Records count wins and losses on the closing line (pushes left out). “Live” is games since the study; stat patterns use season-to-date numbers, so they show on pregame cards only.

Loading study…

Records only, not advice. 21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Underdog spots

When does the team getting points win the game outright? We tested every lined FBS v FBS game from 2014 to 2025 and this season. Short underdogs, getting 2.5 points or fewer, won about half their games while the no-vig moneyline gave them about 45%. These seven spots add a condition on top and beat the implied rate in at least 8 of 11 seasons (most in 10 or 11), with the cut-offs set on 2014–21 and holding on 2022–25. Inputs are only what was known before kickoff: the closing spread and total, each team’s previous result and season-to-date stats from games before that kickoff. A finished game keeps the badges it had at kickoff, and its result counts toward the 2026 record. Even in these spots the underdog loses about half the time. The badge filter uses 2014–25 and 2026 together for the hit rate and game count.

Loading…

Records only, not advice. 21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

2026 combos

This season only. Every card chip, pattern tag, our number vs DraftKings (margin and total), line size and movement, and every stat on the matchup page with its FBS rank (as it stood before each game) was combined in ones, twos and threes — 5,674,566 combination × result checks on weeks 1–4. The ones below did best on weeks 5–7, games the search never saw. Read them as a watch list: across 58,797 candidates checked on weeks 5–7, 1120 beat chance at the usual 5% level — fewer than luck alone would produce — so even “Held up” combos may fade. “Held up” = weeks 5–7 hit at a 1%-luck level and the week-by-week walk-forward record is 60%+.

• Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14Over · Held up

  69-37 (65%, n=106) this season · weeks 1–4 56-36 · weeks 5–7 13-1 (93%) · week-by-week walk-forward 29-13

  wk1 21-13 · wk2 19-11 · wk3 8-6 · wk4 8-6 · wk5 10-1 · wk6 3-0

• Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rankOver · Held up

  25-4 (86%, n=29) this season · weeks 1–4 13-3 · weeks 5–7 12-1 (92%) · week-by-week walk-forward 19-4

  wk1 2-0 · wk2 4-0 · wk3 2-2 · wk4 5-1 · wk5 7-0 · wk6 4-1 · wk7 1-0

• Spread moved 1.5+ toward favorite + Favorite red-zone TD rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top thirdOver · Held up

  28-7 (80%, n=35) this season · weeks 1–4 16-6 · weeks 5–7 12-1 (92%) · week-by-week walk-forward 19-3

  wk1 4-1 · wk2 5-3 · wk3 4-1 · wk4 3-1 · wk5 9-0 · wk6 3-1

• Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 statsUnder · Held up

  22-4 (85%, n=26) this season · weeks 1–4 11-3 · weeks 5–7 11-1 (92%) · week-by-week walk-forward 18-1

  wk3 4-3 · wk4 7-0 · wk5 5-1 · wk6 6-0

• Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rankUnder · Held up

  24-6 (80%, n=30) this season · weeks 1–4 12-4 · weeks 5–7 12-2 (86%) · week-by-week walk-forward 17-5

  wk1 3-1 · wk2 4-0 · wk3 2-2 · wk4 3-1 · wk5 7-1 · wk6 3-1 · wk7 2-0

• Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rankUnder · Weak

  25-7 (78%, n=32) this season · weeks 1–4 14-5 · weeks 5–7 11-2 (85%) · week-by-week walk-forward 18-5

  wk1 4-2 · wk2 3-0 · wk3 1-1 · wk4 6-2 · wk5 6-1 · wk6 5-1

• Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rankFavorite covers · Held up

  28-5 (85%, n=33) this season · weeks 1–4 14-2 · weeks 5–7 14-3 (82%) · week-by-week walk-forward 21-3

  wk1 1-1 · wk2 2-0 · wk3 4-1 · wk4 7-0 · wk5 8-0 · wk6 6-3

• Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rankFavorite covers · Weak

  31-12 (72%, n=43) this season · weeks 1–4 20-10 · weeks 5–7 11-2 (85%) · week-by-week walk-forward 24-7

  wk1 5-3 · wk2 2-2 · wk3 5-5 · wk4 8-0 · wk5 8-0 · wk6 3-2

• Our total − book -1.5..1.5 + Away team explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rankFavorite covers · Weak

  22-6 (79%, n=28) this season · weeks 1–4 12-4 · weeks 5–7 10-2 (83%) · week-by-week walk-forward 16-4

  wk1 3-1 · wk3 3-1 · wk4 6-2 · wk5 3-1 · wk6 6-1 · wk7 1-0

• Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rankUnderdog covers · Held up

  22-4 (85%, n=26) this season · weeks 1–4 11-3 · weeks 5–7 11-1 (92%) · week-by-week walk-forward 17-3

  wk1 1-1 · wk2 4-0 · wk3 3-1 · wk4 3-1 · wk5 6-1 · wk6 5-0

• Spread moved 1.5+ toward underdog + Both teams' success rate combined: top thirdUnderdog covers · Held up

  43-17 (72%, n=60) this season · weeks 1–4 28-14 · weeks 5–7 15-3 (83%) · week-by-week walk-forward 35-12

  wk1 3-3 · wk2 5-2 · wk3 10-5 · wk4 10-4 · wk5 9-1 · wk6 6-2

• Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top thirdUnderdog covers · Held up

  53-25 (68%, n=78) this season · weeks 1–4 24-13 · weeks 5–7 29-12 (71%) · week-by-week walk-forward 47-20

  wk1 4-2 · wk2 2-3 · wk3 3-3 · wk4 15-5 · wk5 14-5 · wk6 15-7

• Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 statsFavorite wins · Held up

  38-1 (97%, n=39) this season · weeks 1–4 17-0 · weeks 5–7 21-1 (95%) · week-by-week walk-forward 29-1

  wk3 9-0 · wk4 8-0 · wk5 11-1 · wk6 8-0 · wk7 2-0

• Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 statsFavorite wins · Held up

  53-6 (90%, n=59) this season · weeks 1–4 27-3 · weeks 5–7 26-3 (90%) · week-by-week walk-forward 44-5

  wk3 9-1 · wk4 18-2 · wk5 14-1 · wk6 10-2 · wk7 2-0

• Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rankFavorite wins · Held up

  27-1 (96%, n=28) this season · weeks 1–4 12-1 · weeks 5–7 15-0 (100%) · week-by-week walk-forward 21-0

  wk1 4-0 · wk2 1-0 · wk3 1-1 · wk4 6-0 · wk5 6-0 · wk6 7-0 · wk7 2-0

• Away team points per game: top-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top thirdUnderdog wins · Weak

  16-12 (57%, n=28) this season · weeks 1–4 7-8 · weeks 5–7 9-4 (69%) · week-by-week walk-forward 11-10

  wk1 1-0 · wk2 4-2 · wk3 2-2 · wk4 0-4 · wk5 4-3 · wk6 5-1

• Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom thirdUnderdog wins · Weak

  21-16 (57%, n=37) this season · weeks 1–4 11-10 · weeks 5–7 10-6 (63%) · week-by-week walk-forward 15-11

  wk1 3-1 · wk2 3-4 · wk3 2-3 · wk4 3-2 · wk5 5-2 · wk6 4-4 · wk7 1-0

• Underdog sacks: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing yards allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rankUnderdog wins · Weak

  15-10 (60%, n=25) this season · weeks 1–4 7-6 · weeks 5–7 8-4 (67%) · week-by-week walk-forward 10-9

  wk1 3-0 · wk2 2-1 · wk4 2-5 · wk5 3-3 · wk6 4-1 · wk7 1-0

Records only, not advice. 21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Player outlook badges

Badges on the game pages that say which player should finish above or below his own season average, or score. Fitted on 2025, graded on 2026 games the fit never saw. Every factor tested

High / Low badges are graded against the player's season average before the game; TD threat on scoring at least once; Receptions leader on leading the game in catches. Games the player sat out are left out. “Typical” is how often the same thing happened for any eligible player: yards are lopsided (a few big games lift the average), so most players finish below their average most weeks, which is why the Low badges start from a higher bar.