Week 9 College Football Projections (2026)

This week · Updated Oct 29, 2026

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every FBS game

• FinalCBSSN
  Delaware26.6final 35
  Western Kentucky30.1final 21

  Final: Delaware 35, Western Kentucky 21. We projected Western Kentucky 30.1-26.6 (59%) — the model missed this one.

  Pregame calls · how each did

  ExpectedUpset alert68-143 · 32%Upset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games✗Upset alert: missed

  Low Scoring Alert82-72 · 53%Low Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games✓Low Scoring Alert: hitUpset Watch45-133 · 25%Upset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games✓Upset Watch: hit

  📊High-scoring pick'em dogStudy · Moderate Underdog wins: 87-52 · 63%Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+: Record 87 hits, 52 misses (63% hit rate) over 139 graded games✗Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+: missed (n=139) · Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+
  Game time · 🌙 Clear · 64°F · Wind calmGame-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBWG)

  Our number· pregame

  Western Kentucky by 3.5

  Total 56.7

  DraftKings

  Western Kentucky -2.5

  Total 55.5

  Final Delaware by 14. Delaware beat the spread. 56 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Western Kentucky -2.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML +114 / -135 · Western Kentucky 53% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +6 pct pts (Western Kentucky view)

  Western Kentucky 59% · total 56.7Full preview →
• FinalESPN2
  Sam Houston24final 3
  Missouri State28.5final 24

  Final: Sam Houston 3, Missouri State 24. We projected Missouri State 28.5-24 (62%) — winner called correctly.

  Pregame calls · how each did

  Low Scoring Alert82-72 · 53%Low Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games✓Low Scoring Alert: hit

  🔥I. Myers WR · TD threat 74% · 1 ✓🔒I. Myers WR · Low rec yds 95 (avg 133) · 74% · 77 ✓
  Game time · 🌙 Clear · 67°F · Wind 7 mph SSEGame-time weather: Clear, 67°F, Wind 7 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSGF)

  Our number· pregame

  Missouri State by 4.5

  Total 52.5

  DraftKings

  Missouri State -5.5

  Total 51.5

  Final Missouri State by 21. Missouri State beat the spread. 27 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Missouri State -5.5 · O/U 51.5 · ML +175 / -210 · Missouri State 66% no-vig · model vs market -1.0 pts, -4 pct pts (Missouri State view)

  Missouri State 62% · total 52.5Full preview →
• FinalCBSSN
  Kennesaw State24.7final 44
  Middle Tennessee24final 28

  Final: Kennesaw State 44, Middle Tennessee 28. We projected Kennesaw State 24.7-24 (52%) — winner called correctly.

  Pregame calls · how each did

  ExpectedCoin flip86-94 · 48%Coin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games✗Coin flip: missedUpset alert68-143 · 32%Upset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games✓Upset alert: hit

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog beat the spread 8 of 12 since Sep 27 9-4 · 69%Coin flip + Upset alert + our number picks the underdog: Record 9 hits, 4 misses (69% hit rate) over 13 graded games✓Coin flip + Upset alert + our number picks the underdog: hitPromoted by owner

  🧩Slow-pace tagged dog2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: 21-16 · 57%Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: Record 21 hits, 16 misses (57% hit rate) over 37 graded games✓Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: hit (n=37; wk 5–7 10-6) · Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third
  Game time · 🌙 Clear · 61°F · Wind calmGame-time weather: Clear, 61°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMQY)

  Our number· pregame

  Kennesaw State by 0.7

  Total 48.7

  DraftKings

  Kennesaw State -1.5

  Total 49.5

  Final Kennesaw State by 16. Kennesaw State beat the spread. 72 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Kennesaw State -1.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML -111 / -108 · Middle Tennessee 51% no-vig · model vs market +0.8 pts, -3 pct pts (Middle Tennessee view)

  Kennesaw State 52% · total 48.7Full preview →
• FinalESPN2
  Jacksonville State28final 24
  New Mexico State24.9final 0

  Final: Jacksonville State 24, New Mexico State 0. We projected Jacksonville State 28-24.9 (58%) — winner called correctly.

  Pregame calls · how each did

  🧩3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 38-1 · 97%Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games✓Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats🧩Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 53-6 · 90%Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games✓Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats+1 more

  🧱C. Creel QB · Low rush yds 53 (avg 71) · 71% · 211 ✗
  Game time · 🌙 Clear · 75°F · Wind calmGame-time weather: Clear, 75°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KELP)

  Our number· pregame

  Jacksonville State by 3.1

  Total 52.9

  DraftKings

  Jacksonville State -3

  Total 50.5

  Final Jacksonville State by 24. Jacksonville State beat the spread. 24 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Jacksonville State -3 · O/U 50.5 · ML -155 / +129 · New Mexico State 41% no-vig · model vs market -0.1 pts, +1 pct pts (New Mexico State view)

  Jacksonville State 58% · total 52.9Full preview →
• Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM EDTESPN
  Florida Atlantic35
  North Texas49

  We project North Texas 49-35, a 13.8-point margin with 84.4 total points; North Texas wins 82% of the time.

  ExpectedLeans high scoring48-44 · 52%Leans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games

  Blowout Alert62-47-1 · 57%Blowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games

  🧩Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 53-6 · 90%Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats🧩High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: 53-25 · 68%Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded games (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third+1 more

  🔥J. White RB · TD threat 92%🔥J. Stevenson WR · TD threat 74%🎯T. Jackson QB · High pass yds 334 (avg 310) · 54%
  🌧️ Slight chance rain showers · 80°F · Wind 10 mph S · 22% rainKickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 80°F, Wind 10 mph S, 22% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  North Texas by 13.8

  Total 84.4

  DraftKings

  North Texas -13.5

  Total 77.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: North Texas -13.5 · O/U 77.25 · ML +390 / -540.5 · North Texas 81% no-vig · model vs market +0.3 pts, +1 pct pts (North Texas view)

  North Texas 82% · total 84.4Full preview →
• Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM EDTESPN2
  Troy18
  James Madison36

  We project James Madison 36-18, a 18.4-point margin with 54.3 total points; James Madison wins 89% of the time.

  ExpectedFavorite holds227-18 · 93%Favorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games

  📊Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: 219-142 · 61%Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded games (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5

  🧩Stuff-proof ball-secure fav vs havoc-prone dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite covers: 28-5 · 85%Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank: Record 28 hits, 5 misses (85% hit rate) over 33 graded games (n=33; wk 5–7 14-3) · Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank

  ⭐Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · G. Crowder QB · Low rush yds 31 (avg 38) · 75%⭐Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · G. Griffin RB · Low rush yds 46 (avg 57) · 75%⭐Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Lovett RB · Low rush yds 48 (avg 53) · 75%+2 more
  🌙 Clear · 63°F · Wind 1 mph S · 0% rainKickoff forecast: Clear, 63°F, Wind 1 mph S, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  James Madison by 18.4

  Total 54.3

  DraftKings

  James Madison -21

  Total 49.5

  We're 2.6 points higher on Troy than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: James Madison -20.75 · O/U 49.5 · ML +900 / -1800 · James Madison 90% no-vig · model vs market -2.4 pts, -2 pct pts (James Madison view)

  James Madison 89% · total 54.3Full preview →
• Fri, Oct 30, 7:00 PM EDTESPN2
  Tulane31
  Charlotte16

  We project Tulane 31-16, a 14.6-point margin with 47.2 total points; Tulane wins 83% of the time.

  ExpectedLeans low scoring83-105 · 44%Leans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games

  Low Scoring Alert82-72 · 53%Low Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog score UNDER its implied team total 21 of 43 since Oct 10 21-21-1 · 50%Favorite by 7–10 points: Record 21 hits, 21 misses, 1 push (50% hit rate) over 42 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  📊Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: 284-203 · 58%Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded games (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game

  🧩Unranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: 24-6 · 80%Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded games (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank🧩Fav vs pass-poor dog, true total2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: 22-6 · 79%Our total − book -1.5..1.5 + Away team explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 6 misses (79% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 10-2) · Our total − book -1.5..1.5 + Away team explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank+1 more

  ⭐Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · K. Alexander RB · Low rush yds 43 (avg 34) · 77%⭐Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · H. Rutledge RB · Low rush yds 67 (avg 47) · 77%🎯T. Johnson QB · High pass yds 234 (avg 155) · 76%
  🌙 Mostly clear · 72°F · Wind 1 mph NNE · 0% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly clear, 72°F, Wind 1 mph NNE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Tulane by 14.6

  Total 47.2

  DraftKings

  Tulane -10

  Total 46.5

  We're 4.6 points higher on Tulane than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Tulane -10.5 · O/U 46.5 · ML -412.5 / +317.5 · Charlotte 23% no-vig · model vs market -4.1 pts, -6 pct pts (Charlotte view)

  Tulane 83% · total 47.2Full preview →
• Fri, Oct 30, 7:30 PM EDTESPN
  Baylor25
  UCF26

  We project UCF 26-25, a 1.3-point margin with 51.6 total points; UCF wins 53% of the time.

  ExpectedCoin flip86-94 · 48%Coin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games

  🧩Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: 25-4 · 86%Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded games (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank

  🎯K. Jenkins QB · High pass yds 202 (avg 157) · 70%🧱D. Pendergrass RB · Low rush yds 37 (avg 47) · 68%
  🌧️ Slight chance rain showers · 78°F · Wind 10 mph NE · 19% rainKickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 78°F, Wind 10 mph NE, 19% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  UCF by 1.3

  Total 51.6

  DraftKings

  UCF -1.5

  Total 47.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: UCF -1.5 · O/U 48.5 · ML -1 / -119 · UCF 52% no-vig · model vs market -0.2 pts, +1 pct pts (UCF view)

  UCF 53% · total 51.6Full preview →
• Fri, Oct 30, 10:30 PM EDTESPN2
  Kent State27
  Sacramento State22

  We project Kent State 27-22, a 4.6-point margin with 49.1 total points; Kent State wins 62% of the time.

  Low Scoring Alert82-72 · 53%Low Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset Watch45-133 · 25%Upset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog score UNDER its implied team total 21 of 43 since Oct 10 21-21-1 · 50%Favorite by 7–10 points: Record 21 hits, 21 misses, 1 push (50% hit rate) over 42 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  📊Bounce-back dog vs weak-offense fav underStudy · Moderate Under: 273-188 · 59%Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: Record 273 hits, 188 misses (59% hit rate) over 461 graded games (n=461) · Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game

  🧩Unranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: 24-6 · 80%Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded games (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank🧩Slow-pace tagged dog2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: 21-16 · 57%Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: Record 21 hits, 16 misses (57% hit rate) over 37 graded games (n=37; wk 5–7 10-6) · Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third

  ⭐Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · I. Ene RB · Low rush yds 45 (avg 38) · 77%🎯D. DeShields QB · High pass yds 199 (avg 180) · 56%
  🌙 Mostly clear · 64°F · Wind 3 mph SSW · 0% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly clear, 64°F, Wind 3 mph SSW, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Kent State by 4.6

  Total 49.1

  DraftKings

  Kent State -10

  Total 46.5

  We're 5.4 points higher on Sacramento State than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Kent State -10 · O/U 46.5 · ML -379.5 / +297.5 · Sacramento State 24% no-vig · model vs market +5.4 pts, +14 pct pts (Sacramento State view)

  Kent State 62% · total 49.1Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTNeutral site
  Notre Dame43
  Navy12

  We project Notre Dame 43-12, a 30.8-point margin with 54.9 total points; Notre Dame wins 98% of the time.

  ExpectedFavorite holds227-18 · 93%Favorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewing137-30 · 82%Blowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games

  📊Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: 429-313 · 58%Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded games (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14📊High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: 320-237 · 57%Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)

  🧩Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: 69-37 · 65%Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded games (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14

  ⭐Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · B. Woodson QB · Low rush yds 41 (avg 77) · 83%⭐Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Gutierrez QB · Low rush yds 92 (avg 125) · 78%🔥N. James Jr. RB · TD threat 68%+1 more
  ☀️ Sunny · 52°F · Wind 8 mph N · 0% rainKickoff forecast: Sunny, 52°F, Wind 8 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Notre Dame by 30.8

  Total 54.9

  DraftKings

  Notre Dame -30.5

  Total 57.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Notre Dame -30.5 · O/U 57 · ML -8000 / +1900 · Navy 4% no-vig · model vs market -0.3 pts, -2 pct pts (Navy view)

  Notre Dame 98% · total 54.9Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTESPN
  Arizona26
  Texas Tech29

  We project Texas Tech 29-26, a 3.6-point margin with 54.8 total points; Texas Tech wins 59% of the time.

  Upset Watch45-133 · 25%Upset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games

  📊Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: 194-68 · 74%Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded games (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game

  🧩Finishing big-yardage dog vs mid-total fav2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: 22-4 · 85%Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded games (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank🧩Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: 31-12 · 72%Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank

  🪫T. Powell TE · Low catches 3.2 (avg 4) · 67%
  🌥️ Mostly cloudy · 60°F · Wind 5 mph S · 11% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 60°F, Wind 5 mph S, 11% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Texas Tech by 3.6

  Total 54.8

  DraftKings

  Texas Tech -3.5

  Total 54.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Texas Tech -3.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +140 / -169.5 · Texas Tech 60% no-vig · model vs market +0.1 pts, -1 pct pts (Texas Tech view)

  Texas Tech 59% · total 54.8Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTESPN2
  SMU33
  Syracuse25

  We project SMU 33-25, a 7.4-point margin with 58.3 total points; SMU wins 69% of the time.

  Upset Watch45-133 · 25%Upset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog score UNDER its implied team total 21 of 43 since Oct 10 21-21-1 · 50%Favorite by 7–10 points: Record 21 hits, 21 misses, 1 push (50% hit rate) over 42 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  👀Pattern · Watching 6-5 · 55%Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded games · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%

  🧩3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 38-1 · 97%Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats

  ⭐Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · T. Hill RB · Low rush yds 73 (avg 78) · 75%⭐Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Johnson RB · Low rush yds 31 (avg 27) · 75%⭐Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · A. Miller RB · Low rush yds 65 (avg 60) · 75%+1 more
  🏟️ Indoors (dome)Indoors (dome).

  Our number

  SMU by 7.4

  Total 58.3

  DraftKings

  SMU -10

  Total 58.5

  We're 2.6 points higher on Syracuse than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: SMU -10 · O/U 58.5 · ML -367.5 / +287.5 · Syracuse 25% no-vig · model vs market +2.6 pts, +7 pct pts (Syracuse view)

  SMU 69% · total 58.3Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTFox
  Wisconsin14
  Iowa22

  We project Iowa 22-14, a 8.7-point margin with 35.8 total points; Iowa wins 72% of the time.

  ExpectedLeans low scoring83-105 · 44%Leans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games

  📊Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: 194-68 · 74%Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded games (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game📊Defensive bounce-back favStudy · Lean Favorite covers: 170-113 · 60%Underdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game: Record 170 hits, 113 misses (60% hit rate) over 283 graded games (n=283) · Underdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game

  🧊C. Joseph QB · Low pass yds 124 (avg 179) · 74%🧱A. Sama III RB · Low rush yds 43 (avg 59) · 73%🧱C. Joseph QB · Low rush yds 39 (avg 52) · 71%+1 more
  🌧️ Chance rain showers · 60°F · Wind 5 mph SE · 54% rainKickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 60°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 54% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Iowa by 8.7

  Total 35.8

  DraftKings

  Iowa -3.5

  Total 36.5

  We're 5.2 points higher on Iowa than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Iowa -3.5 · O/U 36.5 · ML +140 / -170 · Iowa 60% no-vig · model vs market +5.2 pts, +11 pct pts (Iowa view)

  Iowa 72% · total 35.8Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTACC Network
  California25
  NC State36

  We project NC State 36-25, a 11.8-point margin with 60.9 total points; NC State wins 78% of the time.

  ExpectedLeans high scoring48-44 · 52%Leans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog score UNDER its implied team total 21 of 43 since Oct 10 21-21-1 · 50%Favorite by 7–10 points: Record 21 hits, 21 misses, 1 push (50% hit rate) over 42 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  📊High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: 320-237 · 57%Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)🐶Slow-pace scoring dog vs reeling favDog 24+ pts, slow, fav lost · 2014–25 81-70 · 54%Underdog expected to score 24+, favorite lost its last game, both teams play slow: Record 81 hits, 70 misses (54% hit rate) over 151 graded games · 2026: 13-13

  🧩3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 38-1 · 97%Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats🧩Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 53-6 · 90%Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats

  🎯C. Bailey QB · High pass yds 287 (avg 252) · 55%
  ⛅ Partly sunny · 64°F · Wind 8 mph NE · 0% rainKickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 64°F, Wind 8 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  NC State by 11.8

  Total 60.9

  DraftKings

  NC State -7

  Total 56.5

  We're 4.8 points higher on NC State than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: NC State -7 · O/U 56.5 · ML +221 / -272.5 · NC State 70% no-vig · model vs market +4.8 pts, +8 pct pts (NC State view)

  NC State 78% · total 60.9Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTCW
  Boston College20
  Duke29

  We project Duke 29-20, a 9.9-point margin with 49 total points; Duke wins 74% of the time.

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog score UNDER its implied team total 21 of 43 since Oct 10 21-21-1 · 50%Favorite by 7–10 points: Record 21 hits, 21 misses, 1 push (50% hit rate) over 42 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  📊Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: 194-68 · 74%Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded games (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game

  🧩On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 27-1 · 96%Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank🧩3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 38-1 · 97%Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats+1 more

  🔥N. Sheppard RB · TD threat 82%🧱M. McKenzie QB · Low rush yds 63 (avg 88) · 72%🧱B. MacCormack III RB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 49) · 68%
  ⛅ Partly sunny · 64°F · Wind 7 mph NE · 0% rainKickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 64°F, Wind 7 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Duke by 9.9

  Total 49

  DraftKings

  Duke -7

  Total 47.5

  We're 2.9 points higher on Duke than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Duke -7 · O/U 47.5 · ML +220 / -272.5 · Duke 70% no-vig · model vs market +2.9 pts, +4 pct pts (Duke view)

  Duke 74% · total 49Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTFS1
  Illinois32
  Maryland26

  We project Illinois 32-26, a 6.7-point margin with 57.8 total points; Illinois wins 67% of the time.

  📊Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: 307-231 · 57%Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded games (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over

  🧩Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 53-6 · 90%Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats🧩Mid-total dog vs 3rd-down-leaky fav under2026 combo · Weak Under: 25-7 · 78%Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 7 misses (78% hit rate) over 32 graded games (n=32; wk 5–7 11-2) · Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank

  🔥C. Dixon WR · TD threat 70%
  ⛅ Partly sunny · 60°F · Wind 3 mph N · 0% rainKickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 60°F, Wind 3 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Illinois by 6.7

  Total 57.8

  DraftKings

  Illinois -2.5

  Total 54.5

  We're 4.2 points higher on Illinois than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Illinois -2.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML -137 / +114.5 · Maryland 45% no-vig · model vs market -4.2 pts, -12 pct pts (Maryland view)

  Illinois 67% · total 57.8Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTESPNU
  UAB17
  South Florida31

  We project South Florida 31-17, a 14.7-point margin with 48.2 total points; South Florida wins 83% of the time.

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog score UNDER its implied team total 21 of 43 since Oct 10 21-21-1 · 50%Favorite by 7–10 points: Record 21 hits, 21 misses, 1 push (50% hit rate) over 42 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  🧩Unranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: 24-6 · 80%Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded games (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank🧩Slow-pace tagged dog2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: 21-16 · 57%Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: Record 21 hits, 16 misses (57% hit rate) over 37 graded games (n=37; wk 5–7 10-6) · Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third

  🔥D. Crowther RB · TD threat 73%
  🌤️ Mostly sunny · 82°F · Wind 12 mph E · 4% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 82°F, Wind 12 mph E, 4% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  South Florida by 14.7

  Total 48.2

  DraftKings

  South Florida -8.5

  Total 42.5

  We're 6.2 points higher on South Florida than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: South Florida -7.75 · O/U 42.5 · ML +250 / -312.5 · South Florida 73% no-vig · model vs market +7.0 pts, +11 pct pts (South Florida view)

  South Florida 83% · total 48.2Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTCBSSN
  Bowling Green14
  Western Michigan31

  We project Western Michigan 31-14, a 17.3-point margin with 45.2 total points; Western Michigan wins 87% of the time.

  ExpectedFavorite holds227-18 · 93%Favorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLeans low scoring83-105 · 44%Leans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games

  🧩Unranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: 24-6 · 80%Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded games (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank🧩Stuff-proof ball-secure fav vs havoc-prone dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite covers: 28-5 · 85%Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank: Record 28 hits, 5 misses (85% hit rate) over 33 graded games (n=33; wk 5–7 14-3) · Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank

  ⭐Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · A. Dendy RB · Low rush yds 47 (avg 46) · 75%🔥J. Buckley RB · TD threat 73%🎯B. Lowry QB · High pass yds 169 (avg 156) · 56%
  🌧️ Chance rain showers · 56°F · Wind 7 mph SE · 27% rainKickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 56°F, Wind 7 mph SE, 27% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Western Michigan by 17.3

  Total 45.2

  DraftKings

  Western Michigan -13.5

  Total 44.5

  We're 3.8 points higher on Western Michigan than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Western Michigan -13.5 · O/U 44.25 · ML +405 / -568.5 · Western Michigan 81% no-vig · model vs market +3.8 pts, +6 pct pts (Western Michigan view)

  Western Michigan 87% · total 45.2Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 12:30 PM EDTBTN
  Michigan31
  Rutgers22

  We project Michigan 31-22, a 8.9-point margin with 53.2 total points; Michigan wins 72% of the time.

  Upset Watch45-133 · 25%Upset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games

  🧩Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: 31-12 · 72%Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank

  ⭐Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · A. Raymond RB · Low rush yds 76 (avg 93) · 78%⭐Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · C. Thevenin RB · Low rush yds 56 (avg 58) · 78%
  ☀️ Sunny · 58°F · Wind 5 mph N · 0% rainKickoff forecast: Sunny, 58°F, Wind 5 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Michigan by 8.9

  Total 53.2

  DraftKings

  Michigan -14

  Total 46.5

  We're 5.1 points higher on Rutgers than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Michigan -14 · O/U 46.5 · ML -625 / +445 · Rutgers 18% no-vig · model vs market +5.1 pts, +10 pct pts (Rutgers view)

  Michigan 72% · total 53.2Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 12:45 PM EDTSEC Network
  Auburn21
  Ole Miss35

  We project Ole Miss 35-21, a 13.8-point margin with 55.4 total points; Ole Miss wins 82% of the time.

  👀Pattern · Watching 6-5 · 55%Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded games · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%

  📊High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: 320-237 · 57%Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
  🌧️ Slight chance rain showers · 69°F · Wind 5 mph ESE · 22% rainKickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 69°F, Wind 5 mph ESE, 22% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Ole Miss by 13.8

  Total 55.4

  DraftKings

  Ole Miss -13.5

  Total 57.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Ole Miss -13 · O/U 57.5 · ML +391 / -542.5 · Ole Miss 81% no-vig · model vs market +0.8 pts, +1 pct pts (Ole Miss view)

  Ole Miss 82% · total 55.4Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 1:00 PM EDTESPN+
  Marshall22
  Old Dominion24

  We project Old Dominion 24-22, a 2.7-point margin with 46.1 total points; Old Dominion wins 57% of the time.

  ExpectedCoin flip86-94 · 48%Coin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesUpset alert68-143 · 32%Upset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoring83-105 · 44%Leans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games

  Low Scoring Alert82-72 · 53%Low Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog beat the spread 9 of 13 since Sep 27 9-4 · 69%Coin flip + Upset alert + our number picks the underdog: Record 9 hits, 4 misses (69% hit rate) over 13 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  🧩TD-shy dog vs sloppy fav under2026 combo · Held up Under: 22-4 · 85%Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded games (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats🧩Slow-pace tagged dog2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: 21-16 · 57%Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: Record 21 hits, 16 misses (57% hit rate) over 37 graded games (n=37; wk 5–7 10-6) · Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third
  ⛅ Partly sunny · 62°F · Wind 12 mph NE · 0% rainKickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 62°F, Wind 12 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Old Dominion by 2.7

  Total 46.1

  DraftKings

  Marshall -2.5

  Total 45.5

  We're 5.2 points higher on Old Dominion than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Marshall -2.5 · O/U 45.25 · ML -143 / +120 · Old Dominion 43% no-vig · model vs market +5.2 pts, +14 pct pts (Old Dominion view)

  Old Dominion 57% · total 46.1Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM EDTTNT
  Kansas State30
  Colorado24

  We project Kansas State 30-24, a 6.1-point margin with 53.4 total points; Kansas State wins 66% of the time.

  📊Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: 284-203 · 58%Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded games (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game🐶Short dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 155-114 · 58%Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 9-10+3 more

  🧩3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 38-1 · 97%Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats🧩Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 53-6 · 90%Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats

  🎯I. Wilson QB · High pass yds 213 (avg 196) · 55%
  ⛅ Partly sunny · 57°F · Wind 2 mph E · 5% rainKickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 57°F, Wind 2 mph E, 5% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Kansas State by 6.1

  Total 53.4

  DraftKings

  Kansas State -2.5

  Total 47.5

  We're 3.6 points higher on Kansas State than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Kansas State -2.5 · O/U 47.5 · ML -135 / +114 · Colorado 45% no-vig · model vs market -3.6 pts, -11 pct pts (Colorado view)

  Kansas State 66% · total 53.4Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM EDTESPN+
  Coastal Carolina25
  Georgia State33

  We project Georgia State 33-25, a 7.3-point margin with 57.8 total points; Georgia State wins 68% of the time.

  Blowout Alert62-47-1 · 57%Blowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games

  👀Pattern · Watching 6-5 · 55%Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded games · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%

  📊High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: 320-237 · 57%Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)🐶Slow-pace scoring dog vs reeling favDog 24+ pts, slow, fav lost · 2014–25 81-70 · 54%Underdog expected to score 24+, favorite lost its last game, both teams play slow: Record 81 hits, 70 misses (54% hit rate) over 151 graded games · 2026: 13-13

  🧩3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 38-1 · 97%Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats🧩Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 53-6 · 90%Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats

  🔥R. Dorsey WR · TD threat 69%
  🌥️ Mostly cloudy · 72°F · Wind 15 mph E · 4% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 72°F, Wind 15 mph E, 4% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Georgia State by 7.3

  Total 57.8

  DraftKings

  Georgia State -6.5

  Total 58.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Georgia State -6.5 · O/U 58 · ML +200 / -242.5 · Georgia State 68% no-vig · model vs market +0.8 pts, -0 pct pts (Georgia State view)

  Georgia State 68% · total 57.8Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM EDTMW+
  UConn27
  Air Force30

  We project Air Force 30-27, a 3.2-point margin with 56.8 total points; Air Force wins 58% of the time.

  🐶Big-yardage short road dogShort road dog · better YPP · 2014–25 125-94 · 57%Road underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in yards per play: Record 125 hits, 94 misses (57% hit rate) over 219 graded games · 2026: 9-5🐶Short dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 155-114 · 58%Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 9-10+4 more

  🧩Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 53-6 · 90%Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
  🌤️ Mostly sunny · 59°F · Wind 5 mph SE · 10% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 59°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 10% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Air Force by 3.2

  Total 56.8

  DraftKings

  Air Force -2.5

  Total 53.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Air Force -2.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML +124.5 / -146.5 · Air Force 57% no-vig · model vs market +0.7 pts, +2 pct pts (Air Force view)

  Air Force 58% · total 56.8Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM EDTESPN+
  Temple21
  East Carolina32

  We project East Carolina 32-21, a 11-point margin with 52.6 total points; East Carolina wins 76% of the time.

  🧩TD-shy dog vs sloppy fav under2026 combo · Held up Under: 22-4 · 85%Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded games (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats

  🔒P. Clarke TE · Low rec yds 41 (avg 67) · 79%
  🌥️ Mostly cloudy · 70°F · Wind 9 mph NE · 0% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 70°F, Wind 9 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  East Carolina by 11

  Total 52.6

  DraftKings

  East Carolina -6

  Total 49.5

  We're 5 points higher on East Carolina than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: East Carolina -6 · O/U 49.5 · ML +191.5 / -232.5 · East Carolina 67% no-vig · model vs market +5.0 pts, +9 pct pts (East Carolina view)

  East Carolina 76% · total 52.6Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM EDTESPN+
  Louisiana Tech32
  South Alabama27

  We project Louisiana Tech 32-27, a 4.3-point margin with 59.1 total points; Louisiana Tech wins 61% of the time.

  ExpectedLeans high scoring48-44 · 52%Leans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games

  📊High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: 320-237 · 57%Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)

  🧩Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 53-6 · 90%Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats🧩Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: 31-12 · 72%Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank

  🎯B. Baker QB · High pass yds 200 (avg 193) · 53%
  ⛈️ Chance showers and thunderstorms · 81°F · Wind 10 mph E · 50% rainKickoff forecast: Chance showers and thunderstorms, 81°F, Wind 10 mph E, 50% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Louisiana Tech by 4.3

  Total 59.1

  DraftKings

  Louisiana Tech -5.5

  Total 57.5

  We're 1.2 points higher on South Alabama than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Louisiana Tech -5.5 · O/U 57.5 · ML -212.5 / +177.5 · South Alabama 35% no-vig · model vs market +1.2 pts, +4 pct pts (South Alabama view)

  Louisiana Tech 61% · total 59.1Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 3:15 PM EDTACC Network
  Stanford18
  Louisville40

  We project Louisville 40-18, a 22.7-point margin with 58.3 total points; Louisville wins 93% of the time.

  ExpectedFavorite holds227-18 · 93%Favorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewing137-30 · 82%Blowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games

  Blowout Alert62-47-1 · 57%Blowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games

  🧩Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 53-6 · 90%Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats🧩High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: 53-25 · 68%Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded games (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third
  🌥️ Mostly cloudy · 72°F · Wind 3 mph E · 0% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 72°F, Wind 3 mph E, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Louisville by 22.7

  Total 58.3

  DraftKings

  Louisville -22.5

  Total 61.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Louisville -22.5 · O/U 61.5 · ML +1050 / -2300 · Louisville 92% no-vig · model vs market +0.2 pts, +2 pct pts (Louisville view)

  Louisville 93% · total 58.3Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTNeutral site
  Florida24
  Georgia37

  We project Georgia 37-24, a 12.6-point margin with 61 total points; Georgia wins 80% of the time.

  ExpectedLeans high scoring48-44 · 52%Leans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games

  High Scoring Alert13-7 · 65%High Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this went OVER the book total 4 of 10 since Oct 10 4-6 · 40%High scoring badge: Record 4 hits, 6 misses (40% hit rate) over 10 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  ⭐Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Baugh RB · Low rush yds 83 (avg 109) · 75%🔥J. Baugh RB · TD threat 65%
  Retractable roof · 🌥️ Mostly cloudy · 72°F · Wind 15 mph E · 4% rainKickoff forecast (retractable roof): Mostly cloudy, 72°F, Wind 15 mph E, 4% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Georgia by 12.6

  Total 61

  DraftKings

  Georgia -11.5

  Total 55.5

  We're 1.1 points higher on Georgia than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Georgia -11.5 · O/U 55.75 · ML +350 / -450 · Georgia 79% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, +1 pct pts (Georgia view)

  Georgia 80% · total 61Full preview →

• Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTCBS
  Minnesota8
  Indiana33

  We project Indiana 33-8, a 25-point margin with 40.9 total points; Indiana wins 95% of the time.

  ExpectedFavorite holds227-18 · 93%Favorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewing137-30 · 82%Blowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans low scoring83-105 · 44%Leans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games

  🧩3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 38-1 · 97%Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats

  ⭐Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · T. Thomas RB · Low rush yds 33 (avg 46) · 78%⭐Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · D. Taylor RB · Low rush yds 25 (avg 29) · 78%🧊D. Lindsey QB · Low pass yds 162 (avg 210) · 69%
  🌥️ Mostly cloudy · 70°F · Wind 5 mph ESE · 1% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 70°F, Wind 5 mph ESE, 1% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Indiana by 25

  Total 40.9

  DraftKings

  Indiana -20.5

  Total 42.5

  We're 4.5 points higher on Indiana than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Indiana -20.5 · O/U 42.5 · ML +850 / -1525 · Indiana 90% no-vig · model vs market +4.5 pts, +5 pct pts (Indiana view)

  Indiana 95% · total 40.9Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTFox
  Arizona State18
  BYU35

  We project BYU 35-18, a 17-point margin with 53.6 total points; BYU wins 87% of the time.

  ExpectedFavorite holds227-18 · 93%Favorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games

  📊Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: 219-142 · 61%Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded games (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5

  🧩On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 27-1 · 96%Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank🧩Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: 25-4 · 86%Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded games (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank+2 more

  ⭐Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · K. Brown RB · Low rush yds 33 (avg 48) · 75%⭐Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · C. Boley QB · Low rush yds 10 (avg 9) · 75%⭐Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · C. Mack RB · Low rush yds 59 (avg 67) · 75%+1 more
  ⛈️ Slight chance showers and thunderstorms · 59°F · Wind 3 mph S · 14% rainKickoff forecast: Slight chance showers and thunderstorms, 59°F, Wind 3 mph S, 14% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  BYU by 17

  Total 53.6

  DraftKings

  BYU -16.5

  Total 48.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: BYU -16.5 · O/U 48.5 · ML +535 / -765 · BYU 85% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +2 pct pts (BYU view)

  BYU 87% · total 53.6Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTPeacock
  Northwestern18
  Oregon33

  We project Oregon 33-18, a 15.2-point margin with 50.5 total points; Oregon wins 84% of the time.

  📊Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: 194-68 · 74%Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded games (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game

  🧩Finishing big-yardage dog vs mid-total fav2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: 22-4 · 85%Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded games (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank🧩Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: 31-12 · 72%Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank

  🎯D. Raiola QB · High pass yds 180 (avg 152) · 64%
  🌤️ Mostly sunny · 48°F · Wind calm · 4% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 48°F, Wind calm, 4% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Oregon by 15.2

  Total 50.5

  DraftKings

  Oregon -3.5

  Total 47.5

  We're 11.7 points higher on Oregon than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Oregon -3.5 · O/U 47.5 · ML +145 / -172.5 · Oregon 61% no-vig · model vs market +11.7 pts, +24 pct pts (Oregon view)

  Oregon 84% · total 50.5Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTFS1
  Kansas22
  TCU24

  We project TCU 24-22, a 2.8-point margin with 46 total points; TCU wins 57% of the time.

  ExpectedCoin flip86-94 · 48%Coin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesUpset alert68-143 · 32%Upset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoring83-105 · 44%Leans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games

  Upset Watch45-133 · 25%Upset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog beat the spread 16 of 35 since Sep 26 16-19 · 46%Coin flip + Upset alert: Record 16 hits, 19 misses (46% hit rate) over 35 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  📊Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: 194-68 · 74%Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded games (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game

  🧩Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: 25-4 · 86%Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded games (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank

  🔒K. Ashley TE · Low rec yds 52 (avg 73) · 73%🔒J. Dwyer WR · Low rec yds 85 (avg 121) · 72%🧱I. Marshall QB · Low rush yds 43 (avg 58) · 71%+3 more
  ⛈️ Chance showers and thunderstorms · 74°F · Wind 5 mph SSW · 50% rainKickoff forecast: Chance showers and thunderstorms, 74°F, Wind 5 mph SSW, 50% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  TCU by 2.8

  Total 46

  DraftKings

  TCU -6

  Total 46.5

  We're 3.2 points higher on Kansas than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: TCU -5.75 · O/U 46.5 · ML +190 / -227.5 · TCU 67% no-vig · model vs market -2.9 pts, -9 pct pts (TCU view)

  TCU 57% · total 46Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTUSA Net
  Colorado State26
  Utah State34

  We project Utah State 34-26, a 7.2-point margin with 60 total points; Utah State wins 68% of the time.

  ExpectedLeans high scoring48-44 · 52%Leans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games

  Upset Watch45-133 · 25%Upset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games

  📊Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: 194-68 · 74%Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded games (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game🐶Slow-pace scoring dog vs reeling favDog 24+ pts, slow, fav lost · 2014–25 81-70 · 54%Underdog expected to score 24+, favorite lost its last game, both teams play slow: Record 81 hits, 70 misses (54% hit rate) over 151 graded games · 2026: 13-13

  🧩Unranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: 24-6 · 80%Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded games (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank

  🧱H. Hejny QB · Low rush yds 37 (avg 53) · 75%🧱M. Brown RB · Low rush yds 50 (avg 65) · 71%🎯G. Brosterhous QB · High pass yds 205 (avg 160) · 66%
  ⛈️ Chance showers and thunderstorms · 55°F · Wind 2 mph SSW · 36% rainKickoff forecast: Chance showers and thunderstorms, 55°F, Wind 2 mph SSW, 36% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Utah State by 7.2

  Total 60

  DraftKings

  Utah State -6.5

  Total 63.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Utah State -6.5 · O/U 63.5 · ML +192.5 / -240 · Utah State 68% no-vig · model vs market +0.7 pts, +1 pct pts (Utah State view)

  Utah State 68% · total 60Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTMW+
  UTEP6
  North Dakota State39

  We project North Dakota State 39-6, a 32.5-point margin with 45.4 total points; North Dakota State wins 98% of the time.

  ExpectedFavorite holds227-18 · 93%Favorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewing137-30 · 82%Blowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans low scoring83-105 · 44%Leans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games

  🧩Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: 69-37 · 65%Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded games (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14🧩Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: 31-12 · 72%Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank

  ⭐Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · E. Colson Jr. QB · Low rush yds 18 (avg 18) · 78%⭐Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · R. Moore III QB · Low rush yds 52 (avg 59) · 78%⭐Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · T. Jones RB · Low rush yds 39 (avg 44) · 78%+2 more
  🏟️ Indoors (dome)Indoors (dome).

  Our number

  North Dakota State by 32.5

  Total 45.4

  DraftKings

  North Dakota State -25.5

  Total 43.5

  We're 7 points higher on North Dakota State than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: North Dakota State -25.5 · O/U 43.5 · ML +1420 / -3253 · North Dakota State 93% no-vig · model vs market +7.0 pts, +5 pct pts (North Dakota State view)

  North Dakota State 98% · total 45.4Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTCBSSN
  Florida International14
  Liberty27

  We project Liberty 27-14, a 13.5-point margin with 40.6 total points; Liberty wins 81% of the time.

  ExpectedLeans low scoring83-105 · 44%Leans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games

  📊Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: 219-142 · 61%Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded games (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5

  🧩On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 27-1 · 96%Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank🧩Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: 25-4 · 86%Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded games (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank

  ⭐Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · D. Lyons RB · Low rush yds 52 (avg 55) · 75%🔒M. Anderson WR · Low rec yds 56 (avg 81) · 74%🔒M. Jackson WR · Low rec yds 54 (avg 77) · 73%+1 more
  ⛅ Partly sunny · 63°F · Wind 5 mph E · 0% rainKickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 63°F, Wind 5 mph E, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Liberty by 13.5

  Total 40.6

  DraftKings

  Liberty -14

  Total 45.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Liberty -14 · O/U 45.5 · ML +440 / -625 · Liberty 82% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, -1 pct pts (Liberty view)

  Liberty 81% · total 40.6Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTESPN+
  Southern Miss29
  UL Monroe25

  We project Southern Miss 29-25, a 3.8-point margin with 54.5 total points; Southern Miss wins 60% of the time.

  Low Scoring Alert82-72 · 53%Low Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games

  👀Pattern · Watching 6-5 · 55%Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded games · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%

  🧩On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 27-1 · 96%Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank🧩Mid-total dog vs 3rd-down-leaky fav under2026 combo · Weak Under: 25-7 · 78%Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 7 misses (78% hit rate) over 32 graded games (n=32; wk 5–7 11-2) · Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank

  🔥S. Robinson RB · TD threat 78%🎯L. Lyddy QB · High pass yds 209 (avg 171) · 65%🎯A. Armenta QB · High pass yds 206 (avg 187) · 59%
  🌧️ Chance rain showers · 80°F · Wind 5 mph E · 39% rainKickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 80°F, Wind 5 mph E, 39% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Southern Miss by 3.8

  Total 54.5

  DraftKings

  Southern Miss -3.5

  Total 55.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Southern Miss -3.5 · O/U 56.25 · ML -167.5 / +141 · UL Monroe 40% no-vig · model vs market -0.3 pts, +0 pct pts (UL Monroe view)

  Southern Miss 60% · total 54.5Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 3:45 PM EDTESPN
  Utah33
  Cincinnati24

  We project Utah 33-24, a 8.8-point margin with 57.4 total points; Utah wins 72% of the time.

  High Scoring Alert13-7 · 65%High Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this went OVER the book total 4 of 10 since Oct 10 4-6 · 40%High scoring badge: Record 4 hits, 6 misses (40% hit rate) over 10 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  📊Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: 307-231 · 57%Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded games (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over

  🧩Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: 31-12 · 72%Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank🧩Dog vs soft-D host, efficient offenses2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: 16-12 · 57%Away team points per game: top-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third: Record 16 hits, 12 misses (57% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 9-4) · Away team points per game: top-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third

  🔥W. Parker RB · TD threat 78%🎯D. Dampier QB · High pass yds 254 (avg 231) · 53%
  🌥️ Mostly cloudy · 69°F · Wind 6 mph E · 1% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 69°F, Wind 6 mph E, 1% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Utah by 8.8

  Total 57.4

  DraftKings

  Utah -6.5

  Total 56.5

  We're 2.3 points higher on Utah than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Utah -6.5 · O/U 56.75 · ML -250 / +205 · Cincinnati 32% no-vig · model vs market -2.3 pts, -3 pct pts (Cincinnati view)

  Utah 72% · total 57.4Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 3:45 PM EDTESPN2
  Virginia17
  Wake Forest30

  We project Wake Forest 30-17, a 13.4-point margin with 46.6 total points; Wake Forest wins 81% of the time.

  ExpectedLeans low scoring83-105 · 44%Leans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games

  ⭐Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · B. Pribula QB · Low rush yds 21 (avg 24) · 75%⭐Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Middlebrook RB · Low rush yds 55 (avg 64) · 75%🔒J. Foley WR · Low rec yds 67 (avg 93) · 73%
  🌥️ Mostly cloudy · 67°F · Wind 7 mph NE · 0% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 67°F, Wind 7 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Wake Forest by 13.4

  Total 46.6

  DraftKings

  Wake Forest -12.5

  Total 49.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Wake Forest -12.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML +400 / -570 · Wake Forest 81% no-vig · model vs market +0.9 pts, 0 pct pts (Wake Forest view)

  Wake Forest 81% · total 46.6Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM EDTMW+
  New Mexico32
  San José State16

  We project New Mexico 32-16, a 16.3-point margin with 48.5 total points; New Mexico wins 86% of the time.

  ExpectedFavorite holds227-18 · 93%Favorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games

  Low Scoring Alert82-72 · 53%Low Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset Watch45-133 · 25%Upset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games

  🧩On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 27-1 · 96%Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank🧩Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: 31-12 · 72%Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank

  ⭐Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · L. Weaver QB · Low rush yds 12 (avg 11) · 78%⭐Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Bates RB · Low rush yds 69 (avg 84) · 78%🔥S. Humphrey RB · TD threat 71%
  🌧️ Slight chance light rain · 64°F · Wind calm · 16% rainKickoff forecast: Slight chance light rain, 64°F, Wind calm, 16% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  New Mexico by 16.3

  Total 48.5

  DraftKings

  New Mexico -14.5

  Total 42.5

  We're 1.8 points higher on New Mexico than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: New Mexico -14.5 · O/U 41.5 · ML -687.5 / +477.5 · San José State 16% no-vig · model vs market -1.8 pts, -2 pct pts (San José State view)

  New Mexico 86% · total 48.5Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM EDTBTN
  Nevada14
  UCLA34

  We project UCLA 34-14, a 19.7-point margin with 47.5 total points; UCLA wins 90% of the time.

  ExpectedFavorite holds227-18 · 93%Favorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLeans low scoring83-105 · 44%Leans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games

  Upset Watch45-133 · 25%Upset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games

  📊Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: 429-313 · 58%Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded games (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14

  🧩On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 27-1 · 96%Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank🧩Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: 31-12 · 72%Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank

  ⭐Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · H. Turner RB · Low rush yds 52 (avg 69) · 78%⭐Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · D. Kelley RB · Low rush yds 66 (avg 83) · 78%🔥W. Knight RB · TD threat 86%+1 more
  🌧️ Chance rain showers · 68°F · Wind calm · 45% rainKickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 68°F, Wind calm, 45% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  UCLA by 19.7

  Total 47.5

  DraftKings

  UCLA -22.5

  Total 44.5

  We're 2.8 points higher on Nevada than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: UCLA -22.5 · O/U 44.5 · ML +976.5 / -1950 · UCLA 91% no-vig · model vs market -2.8 pts, -1 pct pts (UCLA view)

  UCLA 90% · total 47.5Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM EDTSEC Network
  South Carolina21
  Oklahoma24

  We project Oklahoma 24-21, a 2.4-point margin with 45.1 total points; Oklahoma wins 56% of the time.

  ExpectedCoin flip86-94 · 48%Coin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesUpset alert68-143 · 32%Upset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoring83-105 · 44%Leans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games

  Upset Watch45-133 · 25%Upset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog beat the spread 16 of 35 since Sep 26 16-19 · 46%Coin flip + Upset alert: Record 16 hits, 19 misses (46% hit rate) over 35 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  📊Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: 194-68 · 74%Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded games (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game

  🧩Finishing big-yardage dog vs mid-total fav2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: 22-4 · 85%Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded games (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank
  🌧️ Chance rain showers · 70°F · Wind 7 mph SSE · 42% rainKickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 70°F, Wind 7 mph SSE, 42% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Oklahoma by 2.4

  Total 45.1

  DraftKings

  Oklahoma -5.5

  Total 44.5

  We're 3.1 points higher on South Carolina than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Oklahoma -5.5 · O/U 44.5 · ML +170 / -205 · Oklahoma 64% no-vig · model vs market -3.1 pts, -8 pct pts (Oklahoma view)

  Oklahoma 56% · total 45.1Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM EDTBTN
  Purdue23
  Penn State34

  We project Penn State 34-23, a 11-point margin with 56.1 total points; Penn State wins 76% of the time.

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog score UNDER its implied team total 21 of 43 since Oct 10 21-21-1 · 50%Favorite by 7–10 points: Record 21 hits, 21 misses, 1 push (50% hit rate) over 42 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  📊Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: 307-231 · 57%Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded games (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over

  🧩Unranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: 24-6 · 80%Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded games (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank

  🔥F. Ijeboi RB · TD threat 73%🎯R. Becht QB · High pass yds 278 (avg 238) · 56%
  ⛅ Partly sunny · 61°F · Wind calm · 0% rainKickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 61°F, Wind calm, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Penn State by 11

  Total 56.1

  DraftKings

  Penn State -7.5

  Total 54.5

  We're 3.5 points higher on Penn State than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Penn State -7.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +240 / -292.5 · Penn State 72% no-vig · model vs market +3.5 pts, +5 pct pts (Penn State view)

  Penn State 76% · total 56.1Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 6:30 PM EDTESPN+
  App State24
  Georgia Southern30

  We project Georgia Southern 30-24, a 6.8-point margin with 54.2 total points; Georgia Southern wins 67% of the time.

  👀Pattern · Watching 6-5 · 55%Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded games · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%

  📊Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: 194-68 · 74%Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded games (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game📊Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: 179-115 · 61%Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded games (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open+1 more
  🌥️ Mostly cloudy · 74°F · Wind 14 mph E · 12% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 74°F, Wind 14 mph E, 12% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Georgia Southern by 6.8

  Total 54.2

  DraftKings

  Georgia Southern -5.5

  Total 56.5

  We're 1.3 points higher on Georgia Southern than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Georgia Southern -5.5 (open Georgia Southern -3.5) · O/U 56.5 (open 54.5) · ML +170 / -205 · Georgia Southern 64% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, +3 pct pts (Georgia Southern view)

  Georgia Southern 67% · total 54.2Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM EDTFS1
  Oklahoma State28
  Iowa State27

  We project Oklahoma State 28-27, a 1-point margin with 55.2 total points; Oklahoma State wins 53% of the time.

  ExpectedCoin flip86-94 · 48%Coin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesUpset alert68-143 · 32%Upset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games

  Blowout Alert62-47-1 · 57%Blowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog score UNDER its implied team total 21 of 43 since Oct 10 21-21-1 · 50%Favorite by 7–10 points: Record 21 hits, 21 misses, 1 push (50% hit rate) over 42 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  👀Pattern · Watching 16-10 · 62%Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded games · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9+1 more

  📊High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: 320-237 · 57%Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)

  🔒C. Jackson WR · Low rec yds 47 (avg 68) · 75%
  🌧️ Chance rain showers · 64°F · Wind 3 mph SE · 27% rainKickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 64°F, Wind 3 mph SE, 27% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Oklahoma State by 1

  Total 55.2

  DraftKings

  Oklahoma State -9.5

  Total 57.5

  We're 8.5 points higher on Iowa State than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Oklahoma State -9.5 · O/U 57.5 · ML -350 / +277.5 · Iowa State 25% no-vig · model vs market +8.5 pts, +22 pct pts (Iowa State view)

  Oklahoma State 53% · total 55.2Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM EDTACC Network
  Clemson21
  Florida State28

  We project Florida State 28-21, a 6.9-point margin with 49.9 total points; Florida State wins 68% of the time.

  🧩On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 27-1 · 96%Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank🧩TD-shy dog vs sloppy fav under2026 combo · Held up Under: 22-4 · 85%Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded games (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats+2 more

  🎯T. Reynolds QB · High pass yds 182 (avg 157) · 62%
  🌧️ Chance rain showers · 78°F · Wind 10 mph ENE · 31% rainKickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 78°F, Wind 10 mph ENE, 31% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Florida State by 6.9

  Total 49.9

  DraftKings

  Florida State -6

  Total 49.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Florida State -6 · O/U 49.5 · ML +180 / -220 · Florida State 66% no-vig · model vs market +0.9 pts, +2 pct pts (Florida State view)

  Florida State 68% · total 49.9Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM EDTCBSSN
  Washington State26
  San Diego State27

  We project San Diego State 27-26, a 1.3-point margin with 53 total points; San Diego State wins 53% of the time.

  ExpectedCoin flip86-94 · 48%Coin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games

  Low Scoring Alert82-72 · 53%Low Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games

  📊Bounce-back dog vs weak-offense fav underStudy · Moderate Under: 273-188 · 59%Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: Record 273 hits, 188 misses (59% hit rate) over 461 graded games (n=461) · Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game🐶Short dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 155-114 · 58%Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 9-10+1 more

  🧩On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 27-1 · 96%Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank🧩Mid-total dog vs 3rd-down-leaky fav under2026 combo · Weak Under: 25-7 · 78%Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 7 misses (78% hit rate) over 32 graded games (n=32; wk 5–7 11-2) · Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank+1 more

  🎯S. Saunders QB · High pass yds 193 (avg 150) · 74%
  🌧️ Slight chance rain showers · 69°F · Wind 5 mph SW · 17% rainKickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 69°F, Wind 5 mph SW, 17% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  San Diego State by 1.3

  Total 53

  DraftKings

  San Diego State -2.5

  Total 48.5

  We're 1.2 points higher on Washington State than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: San Diego State -2.5 · O/U 48.5 · ML +115 / -135 · San Diego State 55% no-vig · model vs market -1.2 pts, -2 pct pts (San Diego State view)

  San Diego State 53% · total 53Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM EDTABC
  Miami39
  North Carolina15

  We project Miami 39-15, a 24.3-point margin with 54.1 total points; Miami wins 94% of the time.

  ExpectedFavorite holds227-18 · 93%Favorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewing137-30 · 82%Blowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games

  Blowout Alert62-47-1 · 57%Blowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games

  🧩Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: 25-4 · 86%Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded games (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank🧩Dog vs soft-D host, efficient offenses2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: 16-12 · 57%Away team points per game: top-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third: Record 16 hits, 12 misses (57% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 9-4) · Away team points per game: top-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third

  ⭐Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · D. June RB · Low rush yds 30 (avg 35) · 78%🔥M. Toney WR · TD threat 81%🔥M. Fletcher Jr. RB · TD threat 72%
  🌥️ Mostly cloudy · 61°F · Wind 5 mph NE · 0% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 61°F, Wind 5 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Miami by 24.3

  Total 54.1

  DraftKings

  Miami -14.5

  Total 52.5

  We're 9.8 points higher on Miami than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Miami -14.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML -675 / +481 · North Carolina 16% no-vig · model vs market -9.8 pts, -11 pct pts (North Carolina view)

  Miami 94% · total 54.1Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM EDTNBC
  Ohio State35
  USC22

  We project Ohio State 35-22, a 13.3-point margin with 56.8 total points; Ohio State wins 81% of the time.

  🧩Finishing big-yardage dog vs mid-total fav2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: 22-4 · 85%Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded games (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank

  🔥J. Smith WR · TD threat 73%🧊J. Maiava QB · Low pass yds 216 (avg 288) · 70%🧊J. Sayin QB · Low pass yds 229 (avg 287) · 67%
  🌧️ Chance rain showers · 66°F · Wind 5 mph SSW · 51% rainKickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 66°F, Wind 5 mph SSW, 51% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Ohio State by 13.3

  Total 56.8

  DraftKings

  Ohio State -6.5

  Total 51.5

  We're 6.8 points higher on Ohio State than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Ohio State -6.5 · O/U 51.5 · ML -247.5 / +203 · USC 32% no-vig · model vs market -6.8 pts, -13 pct pts (USC view)

  Ohio State 81% · total 56.8Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM EDTESPN
  Mississippi State19
  Texas36

  We project Texas 36-19, a 17-point margin with 54.4 total points; Texas wins 87% of the time.

  ExpectedFavorite holds227-18 · 93%Favorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games

  ⭐Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · F. Bothwell RB · Low rush yds 66 (avg 86) · 75%⭐Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · K. Taylor QB · Low rush yds 20 (avg 25) · 75%⭐Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · K. Wilson RB · Low rush yds 32 (avg 31) · 75%+1 more
  ⛈️ Slight chance showers and thunderstorms · 79°F · Wind calm · 21% rainKickoff forecast: Slight chance showers and thunderstorms, 79°F, Wind calm, 21% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Texas by 17

  Total 54.4

  DraftKings

  Texas -21

  Total 50.5

  We're 4 points higher on Mississippi State than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Texas -20.75 · O/U 50.5 · ML +852 / -1600 · Texas 90% no-vig · model vs market -3.7 pts, -3 pct pts (Texas view)

  Texas 87% · total 54.4Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM EDTESPN2
  Georgia Tech22
  Pittsburgh35

  We project Pittsburgh 35-22, a 12.8-point margin with 57 total points; Pittsburgh wins 80% of the time.

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog score UNDER its implied team total 21 of 43 since Oct 10 21-21-1 · 50%Favorite by 7–10 points: Record 21 hits, 21 misses, 1 push (50% hit rate) over 42 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  🧩High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: 53-25 · 68%Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded games (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third

  🧱J. Haynes RB · Low rush yds 55 (avg 86) · 76%🧱T. Maddox RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 47) · 72%
  🌥️ Mostly cloudy · 57°F · Wind 3 mph E · 2% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 57°F, Wind 3 mph E, 2% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Pittsburgh by 12.8

  Total 57

  DraftKings

  Pittsburgh -7.5

  Total 54.5

  We're 5.3 points higher on Pittsburgh than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Pittsburgh -7.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML +250 / -302.5 · Pittsburgh 73% no-vig · model vs market +5.3 pts, +7 pct pts (Pittsburgh view)

  Pittsburgh 80% · total 57Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 7:45 PM EDTSEC Network
  Missouri29
  Arkansas19

  We project Missouri 29-19, a 10.4-point margin with 48.2 total points; Missouri wins 75% of the time.

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog score UNDER its implied team total 21 of 43 since Oct 10 21-21-1 · 50%Favorite by 7–10 points: Record 21 hits, 21 misses, 1 push (50% hit rate) over 42 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  📊Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: 284-203 · 58%Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded games (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game

  🧩Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: 31-12 · 72%Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank🧩No-pass-rush dog vs pass-soft fav2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: 15-10 · 60%Underdog sacks: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing yards allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 15 hits, 10 misses (60% hit rate) over 25 graded games (n=25; wk 5–7 8-4) · Underdog sacks: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing yards allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank

  ⭐Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · K. Jackson QB · Low rush yds 20 (avg 20) · 75%⭐Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · B. Russell RB · Low rush yds 31 (avg 29) · 75%⭐Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · S. Smith RB · Low rush yds 29 (avg 28) · 75%+3 more
  🌧️ Chance rain showers · 68°F · Wind 5 mph SE · 52% rainKickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 68°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 52% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Missouri by 10.4

  Total 48.2

  DraftKings

  Missouri -10

  Total 49.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Missouri -10 · O/U 49.25 · ML -380 / +300 · Arkansas 24% no-vig · model vs market -0.4 pts, +1 pct pts (Arkansas view)

  Missouri 75% · total 48.2Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM EDTBTN
  Washington22
  Nebraska30

  We project Nebraska 30-22, a 8.3-point margin with 51.6 total points; Nebraska wins 71% of the time.

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog score UNDER its implied team total 21 of 43 since Oct 10 21-21-1 · 50%Favorite by 7–10 points: Record 21 hits, 21 misses, 1 push (50% hit rate) over 42 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  📊Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: 307-231 · 57%Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded games (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over

  🧩Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 53-6 · 90%Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats🧩High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: 53-25 · 68%Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded games (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third

  🎯E. Brown QB · High pass yds 214 (avg 193) · 56%
  🌥️ Mostly cloudy · 64°F · Wind 5 mph SE · 9% rainKickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 64°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 9% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Nebraska by 8.3

  Total 51.6

  DraftKings

  Nebraska -7.5

  Total 49.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Nebraska -7.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML +250 / -308 · Nebraska 73% no-vig · model vs market +0.8 pts, -3 pct pts (Nebraska view)

  Nebraska 71% · total 51.6Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM EDTESPNU
  Army28
  Memphis30

  We project Memphis 30-28, a 2.6-point margin with 57.6 total points; Memphis wins 57% of the time.

  ExpectedCoin flip86-94 · 48%Coin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesUpset alert68-143 · 32%Upset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this saw the underdog beat the spread 16 of 35 since Sep 26 16-19 · 46%Coin flip + Upset alert: Record 16 hits, 19 misses (46% hit rate) over 35 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  👀Pattern · Watching 16-10 · 62%Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded games · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9+1 more

  📊Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: 194-68 · 74%Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded games (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game

  🧩High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: 53-25 · 68%Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded games (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third
  🌧️ Chance rain showers · 71°F · Wind 5 mph ESE · 34% rainKickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 71°F, Wind 5 mph ESE, 34% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Memphis by 2.6

  Total 57.6

  DraftKings

  Memphis -6

  Total 59.5

  We're 3.4 points higher on Army than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Memphis -6 · O/U 59.5 · ML +187 / -227.5 · Memphis 66% no-vig · model vs market -3.4 pts, -10 pct pts (Memphis view)

  Memphis 57% · total 57.6Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 10:00 PM EDTCW
  Texas State27
  Boise State39

  We project Boise State 39-27, a 11.9-point margin with 65.5 total points; Boise State wins 78% of the time.

  ExpectedLeans high scoring48-44 · 52%Leans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games

  High Scoring Alert13-7 · 65%High Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games

  ⚡ Pattern alertGames like this went OVER the book total 4 of 10 since Oct 10 4-6 · 40%High scoring badge: Record 4 hits, 6 misses (40% hit rate) over 10 graded gamesPromoted by owner

  ⭐Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · T. Burgess Jr. RB · Low rush yds 96 (avg 127) · 75%⭐Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · B. Jackson QB · Low rush yds 45 (avg 55) · 75%
  🌧️ Rain showers · 52°F · Wind 5 mph W · 82% rainKickoff forecast: Rain showers, 52°F, Wind 5 mph W, 82% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Boise State by 11.9

  Total 65.5

  DraftKings

  Boise State -11.5

  Total 64.5

  We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Boise State -11.25 · O/U 64 · ML +340 / -450 · Boise State 78% no-vig · model vs market +0.7 pts, 0 pct pts (Boise State view)

  Boise State 78% · total 65.5Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM EDTCBSSN
  Northern Illinois17
  UNLV36

  We project UNLV 36-17, a 18.8-point margin with 52.5 total points; UNLV wins 89% of the time.

  ExpectedFavorite holds227-18 · 93%Favorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games

  🧩Unranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: 24-6 · 80%Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded games (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank🧩Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: 31-12 · 72%Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank+1 more

  🎯J. Arnold QB · High pass yds 212 (avg 198) · 55%
  🏟️ Indoors (dome)Indoors (dome).

  Our number

  UNLV by 18.8

  Total 52.5

  DraftKings

  UNLV -23.5

  Total 53.5

  We're 4.7 points higher on Northern Illinois than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: UNLV -24 · O/U 53.5 · ML +1200 / -2500 · UNLV 92% no-vig · model vs market -5.2 pts, -3 pct pts (UNLV view)

  UNLV 89% · total 52.5Full preview →
• Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM EDTUSA Net
  Oregon State29
  Fresno State25

  We project Oregon State 29-25, a 3.3-point margin with 54.1 total points; Oregon State wins 58% of the time.

  ExpectedUpset alert68-143 · 32%Upset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games

  👀Pattern · Watching 16-10 · 62%Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded games · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9+1 more

  📊High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: 320-237 · 57%Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)

  🧩Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: 25-4 · 86%Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded games (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank🧩Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: 53-6 · 90%Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats+1 more

  🔥J. Legree WR · TD threat 83%🧊B. Atkinson QB · Low pass yds 293 (avg 372) · 70%
  🌧️ Light rain likely · 62°F · Wind 5 mph NW · 60% rainKickoff forecast: Light rain likely, 62°F, Wind 5 mph NW, 60% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT

  Our number

  Oregon State by 3.3

  Total 54.1

  DraftKings

  Oregon State -5.5

  Total 58.5

  We're 2.2 points higher on Fresno State than the book. Shown for comparison only.

  21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

  Market lines: Oregon State -5.5 · O/U 58.5 · ML -223.5 / +185 · Fresno State 34% no-vig · model vs market +2.2 pts, +8 pct pts (Fresno State view)

  Oregon State 58% · total 54.1Full preview →