Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Steelers 25, Falcons 17 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Steelers win about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.8 points and 41.8 combined points.
The Falcons are 3-4, scoring 24.4 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-0.3 per game). The Steelers are 5-2, scoring 21.9 and allowing 19.7 points per game (+2.2 per game).
Steelers' strong defense (8th) should limit Falcons' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense). Steelers' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 22.1 points against an average defense) meets Falcons' below-average defense (20th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Steelers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Falcons by 9 and Steelers by 25 about 80% of the time.
The Steelers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Steelers by about 5.2. The game is on Fox.
Result: Falcons 13, Steelers 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.8 points and the total by 8.8.
More: Falcons schedule · Steelers schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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