Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Titans 21, Jets 21 at Nissan Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Titans win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 42.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Jets are 2-5, scoring 19.6 and allowing 21.4 points per game (-1.8 per game). The Titans are 1-6, scoring 15.4 and allowing 22.3 points per game (-6.9 per game).
Titans' below-average defense (25th) should limit Jets' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). Expect Titans to find it hard going: Jets' below-average defense (21st) outranks Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jets by 16 and Titans by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Titans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Jets would be favoured by 2.1. The game is on CBS.
Result: Jets 23, Titans 10. Jets won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.5 points).
More: Jets schedule · Titans schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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