Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bengals 27, Buccaneers 24 at Paycor Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Bengals win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 50.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Buccaneers are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+1.5 per game). The Bengals are 4-2, scoring 27.2 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+6.9 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) against Bengals' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th). Bengals' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th); that mismatch is where most of Bengals' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buccaneers by 14 and Bengals by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Bengals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bengals by about 0.2. The game is on Fox.
Result: Buccaneers 27, Bengals 33. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.2 points and the total by 9.8.
More: Buccaneers schedule · Bengals schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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