Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Raiders 22, Dolphins 21 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Raiders win about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 42.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Dolphins are 1-5, scoring 16.3 and allowing 26.2 points per game (-9.9 per game). The Raiders are 3-4, scoring 26.1 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-2 per game).
Dolphins' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense) meets Raiders' struggling defense (30th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Dolphins puts up. Raiders' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 22 points against an average defense) meets Dolphins' below-average defense (22nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Raiders puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dolphins by 17 and Raiders by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Raiders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Dolphins would be favoured by 2.5. The game is on Fox.
Result: Dolphins 13, Raiders 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.9 points and the total by 2.9.
More: Dolphins schedule · Raiders schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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