Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Giants 25, Cowboys 24 at MetLife Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Giants win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 49.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Cowboys are 3-4, scoring 27 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+1.3 per game). The Giants are 4-2-1, scoring 23.3 and allowing 23 points per game (+0.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Cowboys' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) against Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th). Giants' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (31st); that mismatch is where most of Giants' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cowboys by 16 and Giants by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Giants get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Cowboys would be favoured by 2. The game is on NBC.
Result: Cowboys 20, Giants 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.4 points and the total by 1.4.
More: Cowboys schedule · Giants schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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