Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Seahawks 25, Commanders 18 at Northwest Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Seahawks win about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.1 points and 42.2 combined points.
The Seahawks are 4-3, scoring 24 and allowing 17.9 points per game (+6.1 per game). The Commanders are 1-4-1, scoring 22 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-6.7 per game).
Seahawks' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Commanders' struggling defense (29th); that mismatch is where most of Seahawks' projected points come from. Expect Commanders to find it hard going: Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) outranks Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Seahawks by 24 and Commanders by 10 about 80% of the time.
The Commanders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Seahawks are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Seahawks 31, Commanders 33. Commanders won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.1 points).
More: Seahawks schedule · Commanders schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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