Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Eagles 24, Cowboys 22 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Eagles win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.5 points and 46.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Cowboys are 3-4, scoring 27 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+1.3 per game). The Eagles are 2-5, scoring 18.1 and allowing 25 points per game (-6.9 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Cowboys' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) against Eagles' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th). Eagles' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (31st); that mismatch is where most of Eagles' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cowboys by 14 and Eagles by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Eagles get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Cowboys would be favoured by 0.1. The game is on ESPN / ABC / Disney+.
Result: Cowboys 38, Eagles 21. Cowboys won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 19.5 points).
More: Cowboys schedule · Eagles schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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