Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bears 25, Patriots 24 at Soldier Field in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Bears win about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.1 points and 48.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Patriots are 4-3, scoring 22.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+2.5 per game). The Bears are 5-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+5.3 per game).
Patriots' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) meets Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Patriots puts up. Patriots' strong defense (5th) should limit Bears' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Patriots by 16 and Bears by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Bears get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Patriots would be favoured by 1.5. The game is on Prime Video.
Result: Patriots 24, Bears 30. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.9 points and the total by 5.7.
More: Patriots schedule · Bears schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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