Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Steelers 25, Saints 21 at Stade de France in Week 7. That is a lean: Steelers win about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.3 points and 46.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Steelers are 5-2, scoring 21.9 and allowing 19.7 points per game (+2.2 per game). The Saints are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-4.6 per game).
Steelers' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 22.1 points against an average defense) meets Saints' below-average defense (23rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Steelers puts up. Expect Saints to find it hard going: Steelers' strong defense (8th) outranks Saints' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Steelers by 20 and Saints by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Saints get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Steelers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NFL Net.
Result: Steelers 16, Saints 10. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.7 points and the total by 20.1.
More: Steelers schedule · Saints schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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