Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bengals 25, Ravens 23 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Bengals win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.1 points and 47.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bengals are 4-2, scoring 27.2 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+6.9 per game). The Ravens are 4-3, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+0.2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bengals' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) against Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th). Ravens' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bengals' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th); that mismatch is where most of Ravens' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bengals by 19 and Ravens by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Ravens get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bengals are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Bengals 35, Ravens 13. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.9 points and the total by 0.7.
More: Bengals schedule · Ravens schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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