Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Vikings 27, Colts 17 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Vikings win about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.7 points and 43.5 combined points.
The Colts are 2-5, scoring 22 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-3.7 per game). The Vikings are 6-0, scoring 20.8 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+8.5 per game).
Expect Colts to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense). Vikings' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense) meets Colts' struggling defense (28th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Vikings puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 7 and Vikings by 27 about 80% of the time.
The Vikings get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vikings by about 7.1. The game is on CBS.
Result: Colts 10, Vikings 16. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.7 points and the total by 17.5.
More: Colts schedule · Vikings schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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