Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jets 22, Dolphins 19 at MetLife Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Jets win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.8 points and 41 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Dolphins are 1-5, scoring 16.3 and allowing 26.2 points per game (-9.9 per game). The Jets are 2-5, scoring 19.6 and allowing 21.4 points per game (-1.8 per game).
Jets' below-average defense (21st) should limit Dolphins' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense). Expect Jets to find it hard going: Dolphins' below-average defense (22nd) outranks Jets' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dolphins by 13 and Jets by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Jets get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jets by about 1.2. The game is on CBS.
Result: Dolphins 28, Jets 25. Dolphins won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 6.8 points).
More: Dolphins schedule · Jets schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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