Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texans 27, Giants 17 at Reliant Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Texans win about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.9 points and 43.7 combined points.
The Giants are 4-2-1, scoring 23.3 and allowing 23 points per game (+0.3 per game). The Texans are 2-5, scoring 23.6 and allowing 24.3 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Expect Giants to find it hard going: Texans' strong defense (9th) outranks Giants' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense). Texans' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th); that mismatch is where most of Texans' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Giants by 7 and Texans by 27 about 80% of the time.
The Texans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texans by about 7.3. The game is on Fox.
Result: Giants 27, Texans 21. Giants won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 15.9 points).
More: Giants schedule · Texans schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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