Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected 49ers 27, Falcons 22 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: 49ers win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 48.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The 49ers are 6-1, scoring 28.1 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+8.2 per game). The Falcons are 3-4, scoring 24.4 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-0.3 per game).
49ers' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Falcons' below-average defense (20th); that mismatch is where most of 49ers' projected points come from. Expect Falcons to find it hard going: 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) outranks Falcons' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between 49ers by 23 and Falcons by 11 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The 49ers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: 49ers 20, Falcons 29. Falcons won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 14.6 points).
More: 49ers schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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