Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Broncos 25, Cardinals 20 at State Farm Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Broncos win about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.1 points and 45.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Broncos are 5-2, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+0.5 per game). The Cardinals are 2-5, scoring 20.3 and allowing 29.7 points per game (-9.4 per game).
Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cardinals' struggling defense (32nd); that mismatch is where most of Broncos' projected points come from. Expect Cardinals to find it hard going: Broncos' strong defense (4th) outranks Cardinals' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Broncos by 22 and Cardinals by 12 about 80% of the time.
The Cardinals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Broncos are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Broncos 30, Cardinals 16. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.9 points and the total by 0.3.
More: Broncos schedule · Cardinals schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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