Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lions 30, Packers 25 at Ford Field in Week 7. That is a lean: Lions win about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.8 points and 54.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Packers are 4-3, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.7 points per game (-0.1 per game). The Lions are 4-2, scoring 30.7 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+3.2 per game).
Packers' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Lions' below-average defense (26th); that mismatch is where most of Packers' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) against Packers' strong defense (7th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Packers by 12 and Lions by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Lions get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Lions by about 2.2. The game is on Fox.
Result: Packers 17, Lions 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.8 points and the total by 17.6.
More: Packers schedule · Lions schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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