Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rams 26, Raiders 24 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Rams win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 50.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Rams are 3-4, scoring 24.3 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+1.6 per game). The Raiders are 3-4, scoring 26.1 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Rams' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) against Raiders' struggling defense (30th). Rams' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) should limit Raiders' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 22 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rams by 19 and Raiders by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Raiders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Rams are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Rams 35, Raiders 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12 points and the total by 5.6.
More: Rams schedule · Raiders schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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