Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cowboys 31, Cardinals 24 at AT&T Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Cowboys win about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.3 points and 54.7 combined points.
The Cardinals are 2-5, scoring 20.3 and allowing 29.7 points per game (-9.4 per game). The Cowboys are 3-4, scoring 27 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+1.3 per game).
Cardinals' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (31st); that mismatch is where most of Cardinals' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Cowboys' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) against Cardinals' struggling defense (32nd).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cardinals by 10 and Cowboys by 24 about 80% of the time.
The Cowboys get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Cowboys by about 4.7. The game is on Fox.
More: Cardinals schedule · Cowboys schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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