Matchup analysis
Our model projects Buccaneers 24, Falcons 20 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Buccaneers win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 44.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Falcons are 3-4, scoring 24.4 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-0.3 per game). The Buccaneers are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+1.5 per game).
Falcons' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense) meets Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Falcons puts up. Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Falcons' below-average defense (20th); that mismatch is where most of Buccaneers' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Falcons by 13 and Buccaneers by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Buccaneers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Buccaneers by about 1.6. The game is on Fox.
More: Falcons schedule · Buccaneers schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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