Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jaguars 28, Colts 18 at EverBank Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Jaguars win about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.9 points and 45.9 combined points.
The Colts are 2-5, scoring 22 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-3.7 per game). The Jaguars are 4-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 17.3 points per game (+8.4 per game).
Jaguars' strong defense (6th) should limit Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) against Colts' struggling defense (28th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 7 and Jaguars by 27 about 80% of the time.
The Jaguars get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jaguars by about 7.3. The game is on CBS.
More: Colts schedule · Jaguars schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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