Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jets 23, Raiders 23 at MetLife Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Jets win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 46.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Raiders are 3-4, scoring 26.1 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-2 per game). The Jets are 2-5, scoring 19.6 and allowing 21.4 points per game (-1.8 per game).
Raiders' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 22 points against an average defense) meets Jets' below-average defense (21st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Raiders puts up. Jets' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense) meets Raiders' struggling defense (30th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Jets puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 16 and Jets by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Jets get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Raiders would be favoured by 2. The game is on Fox.
More: Raiders schedule · Jets schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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