Matchup analysis
Our model projects Lions 23, Vikings 23 at Ford Field in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Lions win about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0 points and 46.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Vikings are 6-0, scoring 20.8 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+8.5 per game). The Lions are 4-2, scoring 30.7 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+3.2 per game).
Vikings' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense) meets Lions' below-average defense (26th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Vikings puts up. Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) meets Vikings' elite defense (1st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Lions puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vikings by 17 and Lions by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Lions get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Vikings would be favoured by 2.6. The game is on Fox.
More: Vikings schedule · Lions schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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