Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rams 27, Chargers 19 at SoFi Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Rams win about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.7 points and 45.7 combined points.
The Chargers are 0-6, scoring 15 and allowing 25.2 points per game (-10.2 per game). The Rams are 3-4, scoring 24.3 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+1.6 per game).
Expect Chargers to find it hard going: Rams' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) outranks Chargers' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.6 points against an average defense). Rams' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th); that mismatch is where most of Rams' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chargers by 9 and Rams by 25 about 80% of the time.
The Rams get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rams by about 5.1. The game is on Fox.
More: Chargers schedule · Rams schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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