Matchup analysis
Our model projects Patriots 26, Dolphins 18 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Patriots win about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.5 points and 43.9 combined points.
The Patriots are 4-3, scoring 22.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+2.5 per game). The Dolphins are 1-5, scoring 16.3 and allowing 26.2 points per game (-9.9 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Patriots' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) against Dolphins' below-average defense (22nd). Patriots' strong defense (5th) should limit Dolphins' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Patriots by 24 and Dolphins by 9 about 80% of the time.
The Dolphins get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Patriots are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Patriots schedule · Dolphins schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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