Matchup analysis
Our model projects Commanders 24, Eagles 20 at Northwest Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Commanders win about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.2 points and 43.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Eagles are 2-5, scoring 18.1 and allowing 25 points per game (-6.9 per game). The Commanders are 1-4-1, scoring 22 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-6.7 per game).
Eagles' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense) meets Commanders' struggling defense (29th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Eagles puts up. Expect Commanders to find it hard going: Eagles' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th) outranks Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eagles by 14 and Commanders by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Commanders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Commanders by about 0.6. The game is on NBC.
More: Eagles schedule · Commanders schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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