Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jaguars 24, Ravens 21 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Jaguars win about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3 points and 44.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Jaguars are 4-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 17.3 points per game (+8.4 per game). The Ravens are 4-3, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+0.2 per game).
Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th); that mismatch is where most of Jaguars' projected points come from. Expect Ravens to find it hard going: Jaguars' strong defense (6th) outranks Ravens' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jaguars by 20 and Ravens by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Ravens get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Jaguars are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Prime Video.
More: Jaguars schedule · Ravens schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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