Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bengals 24, Falcons 23 at Santiago Bernabéu in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: Bengals win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 47.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bengals are 4-2, scoring 27.2 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+6.9 per game). The Falcons are 3-4, scoring 24.4 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-0.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bengals' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) against Falcons' below-average defense (20th). Falcons' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bengals' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th); that mismatch is where most of Falcons' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bengals by 19 and Falcons by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bengals are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NFL Net.
More: Bengals schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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