Matchup analysis
Our model projects Saints 22, Browns 20 at Caesars Superdome in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: Saints win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 42.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Browns are 5-2, scoring 19 and allowing 20.9 points per game (-1.9 per game). The Saints are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-4.6 per game).
Saints' below-average defense (23rd) should limit Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.2 points against an average defense). Expect Saints to find it hard going: Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) outranks Saints' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Browns by 15 and Saints by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Saints get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Browns would be favoured by 0.8. The game is on CBS.
More: Browns schedule · Saints schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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