Matchup analysis
Our model projects Colts 27, Cowboys 23 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Colts win about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.5 points and 49.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Cowboys are 3-4, scoring 27 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+1.3 per game). The Colts are 2-5, scoring 22 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-3.7 per game).
Cowboys' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colts' struggling defense (28th); that mismatch is where most of Cowboys' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) against Cowboys' struggling defense (31st).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cowboys by 12 and Colts by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Colts get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colts by about 1.9. The game is on Fox.
More: Cowboys schedule · Colts schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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