Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rams 25, Commanders 21 at Northwest Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Rams win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 45.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Rams are 3-4, scoring 24.3 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+1.6 per game). The Commanders are 1-4-1, scoring 22 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-6.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Rams' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) against Commanders' struggling defense (29th). Rams' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) should limit Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rams by 20 and Commanders by 13 about 80% of the time.
The Commanders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Rams are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
More: Rams schedule · Commanders schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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